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PDC 2014 World Championship Day Two Premium Picks.
While it was great to have darts back on our TV, last night was a bit disappointing. I knew John Part was vulnerable, and he put in the performance we expected him to, but he was fortunate Mareno Michels was playing to an even lower level. It’s frustrating, but I will be looking to take on Part every time he’s that short. As for Dean Winstanley, he averaged 95.48, averaged 36% on the doubles, which would have been good enough to get past a lot of players, but Richie Burnett just found some form that he last showed circa 1996 – he was averaging over 103 at one point! Not much you can do when he’s rattling off 10 dart legs. But at least we got on the right side of the Peter Wright maximums – he was never going to lose that bet. So, while it was a rocky start, I think the picks were just unfortunate, and I’ll be looking to take on John Part in the second round regardless of where he’s got Wes Newton, Royden Lam or Gino Vos. As for Richie Burnett, he’s worth keeping on our side.
Today we had a midday start, and it’s a packed card. We have 10 matches in total, and the real action begins in the evening session, with Gary Anderson taking to the stage, along with Andy Hamilton, Paul Nicholson and Stuart Kellett. The afternoon session isn’t as glamorous, with the PDC mid-carders, so to speak, taking to the stage.
Mark Waslh Vs Jarkko Komula
If there’s one thing I can say about Mark Walsh’s recent form is that it’s been shocking. He has just went back to the Mark Walsh of old, and I wouldn’t be backing with counterfeit. He was one of the players I wanted to take on before the tournament, as long as he got a tricky draw, and I think Jarkko Komula is a trick draw. The Finn, unlike a lot of the foreign qualifiers, has experience on the TV stage, he’s no stranger to the big time, and he’s a handy player on the day. In fact, his run as the Dutch Masters was impressive, beating Justin Pipe, Paul Nicholson and James Wade before losing to eventual runner-up Brendan Dolan. So the little he does play on the Tour, he’s playing well enough to cause Walsh grief. I like the Finn here, and I think Walsh will be hating this draw.
Jarkko Komula to beat Mark Walsh Best price 11/10.
Recommend: 1 unit.
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Prelim Match:
Colin McGarry Vs Per Lauresen
i said last night that I don’t like these Prelim matches, and I don’t. However, this is an interesting one, as I have actually seen both players play, and there are stats and videos available for both men. And what I see here is a market the bookies have got wrong. While both players are darts veteran, Laursen is the one that’s shown some ability on TV in the past, while McGarry’s biggest televised win was over Mark Webster in the Grand Slam of Darts back in 2008. Laursen has beaten John Part 3-0 at the World Championship, a few years ago, and then lost 4-3 in the prelim match on his last visit to the Ally Pally. I’d have Laursen favourite here, and I can’t see why McGarry is so short. Plus, Laursen will be confident – he’s been cleaning up on the Scandinavian Tour, and while it’s not as tough as the ProTour, there are a lot of handy players in Scandinavia, so it’s a hard tour to dominante.
Per Lauresen to beat Colin McGarry Best price 11/10.
Recommend: 1 unit..
Wayne Jones Vs Kevin McDine.
This is another match I’ve been looking forward to, as I think the bookies have this wrong. Wayne Jones has been scraping wins together to keep himself in the top 32 all year, while Kevin McDine has been trying to get himself back into the upper rankings of the PDC. While McDine hasn’t had a great 2013, he found a bit of form in November, making the quarter-final of two Players Championship events in Wigan. Jones hasn’t made a splash on the circuit this year, either, and this match is make or break for him, you have to think. For me, it’s going to be a close one, and the bookies have Jones far too short for my liking. McDine is capable of good darts, and he actually has the advantage over Jones on the head-to-head, leading 3-2, although they haven’t played a competitive match against each other since 2011. But the fact McDine has won three-in-a-row gives me belief he’s the value here.
Kevin McDine to beat Wayne Jones Best price 6/4.
Recommend: 2 units.
Terry Jenkins Vs McGarry/Lauresen.
While Jenkins hasn’t been playing great darts this year, he should be able to see off either Laursen or McGarry, unless either man shows amazing form in the Prelim. Although, like Phil Taylor pointed out last night, the qualifier does have the benefit of being on the stage already, which is a huge benefit. So, the qualifier might just take a set from Jenkins. And there might even be a shock. But since we don’t know who’s playing, I can’t advise.
Recommend: No bet.
Ian White Vs Kyle Anderson.
The final match of the first session is an interesting match. Ian White has had a great year, while Kyle Anderson has had a great year in Australia, but hasn’t built off of his maiden PDC World Championship appearance. He lost 6-1 to Phil Taylor at the Sydney Masters. So at least we know what this international player can do – and I don’t think it’s in the same league as Ian White. What I can’t see is a lot of 180s – we’re going 3 sets, I think (possibly 4), and Anderson only hit 1 last year against Steve Beaton, and while White is capable, he’s not one of the power 180s scorers. The line is either 5.5 or 6.5 depending where you bet, and I like the 5.5 line, as there’s a shade of value to be had there.
Under 5.5 180s in White vs Anderson match Best price 5/4.
Recommend: 1 unit.
- Evening Session.
- Prelim Match.
Julio Barbero Vs Andree Welge.
This is one of the prelim matches where I don’t know too much about one of the competitors. There’s a lot out there about Andree Welge, but Julio Barbero is a bit of an unknown quantity. And in these races to 4, I don’t want to be backing on or against a player that could have the X Factor. Just watch, and maybe Barbero makes a big impact. Either that, or Welge takes care of him comfortably.
Recommend: No bet.
Robert Thornton Vs Max Hopp.
Max Hopp made his debut last year, lost to Denis Ovens and hasn’t done much since. He’s got to the odd European event here and there, but he’s just not progressed into the player he was touted to be. Thornton has been a class act over the last 18 months, and he should have far too much for Hopp – his scoring is strong, he hits double top better than most, and he’s got his confidence back. He’s going to be far too strong for the teenager and I expect a comfortable win.
Robert Thornton -2.5 sets to beat Max Hopp: Best price 5/4.
Recommend: 1 unit.
gary Anderson Vs Mark Dudbridge.
Good to see Dudbridge back on TV after a terrible time through injury, and he’ll be happy to take on Gary Anderson while the Scotsman is somewhat out of form. I think Anderson might just be a bit too strong given the flashes he showed at the Grand Slam of Darts, but Dudbridge is no slouch considering he won through the qualifiers to get here tonight. The one thing that is noticeable about Anderson’s game right now is that he’s not hitting the 180s in the way that he used to. Dudbridge can fire them in, and he’s worth a dabble to outperform The Flying Scotsman on the maximums.
Mark Dudbridge to score more 180s than Gary Anderson: Best price 3/1.
Recommend: 1 unit.
Andy Hamilton Vs Welge/Barbero.
Like the previous match involving the qualifier, I can’t advise anything due to the markets not being up. However, Hamilton is one of the most consistent players on the ProTour, and he should be a comfortable winner over either man.
Recommend: No bet.
Paul Nicholson Vs Stuart Kellett.
The main event of the night, like last night, is the most interesting on the card. Nicholson is a man that can get the crowd going, albeit to his detriment sometimes. But if you saw the crowd last night, it’s usually sparse for the last match. So Nicholson might not get the vitriol he usually gets. The main problem for him is that he’s drawn Stuart Kellett, a former BDO No.1. Kellett has shown signs of quality, and he was a bad loser for us last year – he had his chances and didn’t take them. But now, he’s got the experience under his belt, and should come on for it. Nicholson hasn’t been playing great darts, Kellett hasn’t either, but Kellett has done it all before in the BDO. Kellett is value here, as it’s going to be a close one, and I can’t have Nicholson at such a short price, like a lot of the seeded players.
Stuart Kellett to beat Paul Nicholson Best price 11/8.
Recommend: 2 units.
that’s all for Day Two of the Premium Picks. I’ll have more for you tomorrow.
