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BDO 2014 World Championship Day Four Premium Picks.
The BDO are giving you a full day of darts, one after the other, non-stop, even if it means your top names are playing in the afternoon. But what do we care? We got a perfect day yesterday, as our run of bad luck ended in spectacular fashion. We had a 107-1 sixfold, and I’ve had two e-mails from subscribers who managed to get an accumulator on that paid around 100-1 for a nice stake. So, Christmas came late for them, and I know their bookies will be watching them now. We are now 9-8 and sitting with a profit of 2.9 units. Let’s keep the run going.
So, after Tony Eccles, Paul Hogan, Jan Dekker, Geert de Vos and Dave Prins all won comfortably for us, and Michael Meaney got the 2 sets he needed to beat the handicap line, we head into a huge day of darts, starting with the biggest match of the competition so far – old foes Martin Adams and Tony O’Shea face off in the first of the day’s matches,, live on BBC 2. Then Scott Mitchell faces Paul Hogan and then it’s all about Stephen Bunting, the No.1 seed, taking on Jim Widmayer. The evening session starts with Wales’ Jim Williams taking on Dave Prins, fresh from his prelim win last night, followed by No. 2 seed James Wilson taking on Christian Kist in what should be another cracker. Round One ends with Glen Durrant and Mike Day, in a match just a little less glamorous than the one preceding it.
Tony O’Shea vs Martin Adams.
You could say this is the rivalry that matches Taylor/Barney in the BDO, these men are friends off the oche, big foes on it, and they’re two of the biggest names in darts. the interesting stat here is that Adams holds a huge advantage on the head-to-head – Adams leading 12-3, winning the last two meetings between the pair, and the meetings at the World Championship are split 1-1, with O’Shea winning the most recent one, which was a classic in 2012. So it’s safe to say both men know each other’s game inside-out, and both men have had their ups and downs this year, so it’s a tough one to call. Where this is going to be won is on the checkouts, and both men are class acts on the finishes. Adams was hitting the doubles with great aplomb in his qualifying match, and he’ll have to do the same again to beat O’Shea. Of course, O’Shea is no slouch, and I think we’re going to see a big finish or two help decide this match. Outright prices are in line with what I have, so the checkout is the play here.
Highest checkout in O’Shea vs Adams match over 123.5 Best price 5/6 (Various)
Recommend: 1.5 units.
Scott Mitchell vs Paul Hogan
Paul Hogan came tough match yesterday, but got through with an 83.76 average. The Gold Cup winner looking confident on his return to the Lakeside. He’s facing Scott Mitchell, who is a man in form. He won the Sunparks Masters in November, beating Wesley Harms on his way to the final, where he beat Martin Adams 3-0. He also won the French Open in September, beating Tony O’Shea in the final. So it’s a good form line coming into the tournament, even though his showing in Zuideruin left a lot to be desired. What’s interesting here is the benefit of having one match under your belt does to a player. Michael Meaney, on form, should never have taken 2 sets from Ross Montgomery last night, but that extra match will have boosted him against a player coming in cold. Hogan should benefit from that, and his form is just as good as Mitchell’s. He’s the value here, and I think he’ll shorten before the off.
Paul Hogan -1.5 sets to beat Scott Mitchell Best price 10/11 (Various)
Recommend: 1 unit units.
Stephen Bunting vs Jim Widmayer
The No.1 seed takes his bow in this year’s competition, and he’s in exceptional form. He won the World Masters without dropping a set, made the final in Zuiderduin, and before that he won the Isle of Man Open, the Mariflex Open, the Welsh Open, the England Open, the England Open, the England Masters, and the England Matchplay. So it’s safe to say he’s been the best player in the BDO by a long way this year. He’s the man to beat, and he won’t be hard pushed to get past Jim Widmayer here. Widmayer averaged 73.95 in his prelim match win over Garry Thompson, and he’s going to have to put 10 points on his average, at a minimum to get close to Bunting. Widmayer playing one match should put a couple of points on, but he’s no match for Bunting. However, the 3-0 is incredibly short. What I like the look of is the Total 180s market. The line is 5.5 and I don’t think we’re going to get enough legs to get near that. Bunting should be good for a few, Widmayer may sneak one, but I think 11 legs maximum isn’t going to be enough to get the 6.
Under 5.5 180s in Bunting vs Widmayer match Best price 4/5 (Stan James)
Recommend: 2 units.
Jim Williams vs Dave Prins
A steady year for Jim Williams as he climbed through the rankings to No.14 in the world. He makes his debut at the Lakeside in a match he’ll fancy his chances in. That being said, he’s yet to win a ranking title this year, so he’s not in the form of some of his contemporaries. He did make the final of the Scottish Open, and has been on my radar since then, but he’s failed to set it off very often. He’s also not going to be happy with the form Dave Prins showed last night – he averaged just over 80 points, but it was more than enough to win 3-0, and the experience he had last night on the stage will have helped. The worry for Williams backers is that he’s inexperienced at the Lakeside, and that can count against him, especially with the experience Prins has. Williams, for me, is too short, and I like the value of the experienced Prins here. If he can add a couple of points to his average, it should be enough to see off Williams.
Dave Prins to beat Jim Williams Best price 5/4 (Various)
Recommend: 1 unit.
James Wilson vs Christian Kist
No.2 James Wilson starts his challenge for his first World Championship and he couldn’t have had much of a tougher task. Wilson has had a year to remember, making 7 finals and winning two tournaments, most notably in Zuiderduin., This has seen him climb to the top of the rankings, and the only man in better form would be Stephen Bunting, who he could be on course to meet in the final. That being said, Kist has the benefit of a match already this year at the Lakeside, and although the result was tight, his average of 86.96 was one of the best of the last few days. There’s also no denying his class, being a former World Champion. He didn’t disgrace himself at the Grand Slam of Darts, and he’s always good for an average aroudn the 90s, if not more. For me, the fact Wilson lost on his debut last year isn’t a good sign. Sure, it was a tight loss to Stephen Bunting, but experience on the Lakeside stage counts for a lot, and add in that the pressure is on him this year, and I can’t back him at such a short price. Kist has the experience, he is a quality player and the fact he has a game under his belt already means I think the price available is absurdly big. It could be 3-2 either way, but 7/4 is just too big for a former World Champion taking on a man yet to win on the Lakeside stage.
Christian Kist to beat James Wilson Best price 7/4 (Ladbrokes)
Recommend: 2 units.
Glen Durrant vs Mike Day
Last match of the night, and it’s anything but a classic. Mike Day got through the prelim match with a 77.88 average against Sam Head, and he’ll have to up that against Glen Durrant, who is another one of the players I’ve been keeping an eye on. Durrant won the Northern Ireland Open in November, and the England Classic in September. He’s a man in form, and he’s a class above Day. I think Durrant is going to send a statement out tonight, and I can’t see anything but a comfortable win. The 3-0 is a huge price here.
Glen Durrant to beat Mike Day 3-0 Best price 7/4 (Stan James)
Recommend: 2 units.
That’s all for the Day Three of the 2014 BDO World Championship. I’ll be back tomorrow with more Premium Picks.
