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BDO 2014 World Championship Day Seven Premium Picks.
It was a bit of a frustrating day yesterday, as out of the blue the 180s started flying in. Well, except in the one game that we needed it. Yes, Martin Adams and Ross Montgomery couldn’t fire them in, but Robbie Green and Tony Eccles got a bucketload, as did Stephen Bunting. The one bright side was Jan Dekker beating the handicap against Geert de Voort. So, after yesterday, we’re now 18-14 with a profit of +10.58 units.
The final two quarter-finals take place tonight, and we have the second-favourite taking on the tournament dark horse, and we have a two-time World Championship taking on a young Dutchman. So it’s James Wilson taking on Alan Norris and Martin Adams facing Jan Dekker.
Martin Adams vs Jan Dekker.
Interesting match here, as Martin Adams has shown us all he’s not out for the count just yet. The interview he gave the BBC summed up his poor year, but he’s back playing good darts, and his wins over Tony O’Shea and Scott Montgomery were the mark of a man confident with his darts. He averaged 87.27 against O’Shea and 85.62 against Montgomery, which wouldn’t be good enough to beat the rest of the field, except, perhaps, Jan Dekker. Dekker has looked in good for, beating Benito van de Pas 3-0 and then Geert de Vos 4-2. He averaged 83.51 then 85.53 in his two matches, so, again, not bad, but definitely not anywhere near good enough to be challenging the likes of Bunting, Wilson, Green or Norris, so both men know they have to find another gear tonight and bring their average up another 5 points to even have a shot at winning this thing. On the stats, it’s close, especially their Round Two performances, with the averages in the mid-80s, and both men hitting 3 180s. It’s because of this that I think we’re going to have a close one. It’s first to 5, and I can see it being, at the very least, 5-3 to either man. They’ve both been here and done it before, so although Dekker is considerably younger, he’s still shown he can reach the semi-finals at the Lakeside. The other line I like is the 180s market. Because we should get at least 8 sets, I can see both men looking good for 5-6 maximums each, given that their performances in the last round. It should be nip and tuck, probably not pretty, but it should be enjoyable.
Over 7.5 sets in Adams vs Dekker match Best price 5/6 (Various)
Recommend: 3 units.
Over 9.5 180s in Adams vs Dekker match Best price 5/6 (Boylesports)
Recommend: 1.5 units.
James Wilson vs Alan Norris
This is perhaps the quarter-final we’ve all been looking forward to. James Wilson has confirmed his position at the head of the market with two convincing wins in his first two matches, beating Christian Kist 3-1 and then Scott Mitchell 4-2. Wilson averaged 96.33 and 92.49 in those matches, showing great finishing ability as well as heavy scoring. Alan Norris, as we all know, disposed of Scott Waites 3-0 with an average of 93.27 and then got past Glen Durrant 4-1 with an average of 93.84. So Norris has been steadily averaging around the 93 mark, and Wilson’s tournament average is around the 94 mark, so the stats have them close. Norris hit 7 180s in his 4-1 win over Glen Durrant, so it looks like his eye is finally in, after a slow start against Scott Waites. Wilson his 6 in his 6 sets against Scott Mitchell, so he’s also finding his range. Given that I think we’re going to get 8 sets of more, I would think Wilson is good for close to double figures, as is Norris. The line, for me, looks like, as we know Norris is capable, in a best of 9 match, of getting over the line himself. The other bet I like is Wilson to score the highest checkout. Norris has a highest checkout of 127 for the tournament, while Wilson has a 140 to his name from Round Two, and a 143 from Round One. He’s in form, he’s playing well and Norris isn’t the most prolific finisher.
Over 14.5 180s in Wilson vs Norris match Best price 10/11 (Boylesports)
Recommend: 3 units.
James Wilson to score highest checkout vs Alan Norris Best price 4/6 (Boylesports)
Recommend: 3 units.
That’s all for the Day Seven of the 2014 BDO World Championship. I’ll be back tomorrow with more Premium Picks.
