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No tips yesterday, but we’re back with five today.
Yesterday was one of those days where the system didn’t like much, but it made me feel good about the system. A lot of the system’s projections were right in line with where the betting lines were so I know that the system is on the right track.
A new weekend of new series with some good match-ups. I should have tips tomorrow, but I’ll have to do them early as I am getting my second COVID-19 vaccination shot. I expect that to knock me right out so I’ll need to get them in early. I will be off Sunday.
Friday night is a great night for baseball. Let’s make some money!
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Taylor Widener | 102 | 96 | 21 | 95 | 16 | 100 | 23 | 101 | 12 | |
| WSN | Max Scherzer | 71 | 104 | 12 | 95 | 16 | 100 | 19 | 111 | 22 | 103 |
This tip is all about Max Scherzer. He’s had a somewhat rough start to the season with tough match-ups against the Braves and Dodgers. I think he has to be licking his lips at this match-up against the Diamondbacks, an offense that he can dominate. He’s at home and the Diamondbacks are a below average offense.
There is nothing all that exciting about Widener and I think the Nationals offense will be able to hit him, even if Juan Soto has to do it by himself.
Bet Nationals -0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)
Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Logan Allen | 111 | 99 | 17 | 78 | 27 | 97 | 13 | 90 | 9 | |
| CIN | Jeff Hoffman | 100 | 96 | 21 | 117 | 3 | 105 | 27 | 116 | 24 | 105 |
The Reds offense has played very well early with a big 117 wRC+ thus far. I love this match-up for them against the weak lefty. As a team they have a .262 isolated slugging against lefties on the season.
Jeff Hoffman does give me a bit of pause, but he’s been solid in his first two starts. Maybe it’s just a case of getting away from Coors Field for him. Plus, it helps that the Indians offense has struggled mightily early.
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New York Mets at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | Jacob deGrom | 60 | 112 | 3 | 108 | 7 | 89 | 2 | 68 | 2 | |
| COL | Chi Chi Gonzalez | 123 | 86 | 30 | 64 | 29 | 110 | 30 | 120 | 26 | 116 |
For his career, Chi Chi Gonzalez has a 5.03 ERA/5.27 FIP with a 1.11 HR/9 rate and only 5.51 K/9. He stinks and he is the kind of pitcher that is going to get absolutely smashed this season. The Mets offense has had a slow start, but Coors Field and Gonzalez should be the key to what ails them.
Pulling a trick from my NBA toolbox for this one as we’re only going to bet on the Mets to go over.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Lewis Thorpe | 98 | 111 | 4 | 106 | 8 | 98 | 15 | 90 | 9 | |
| LAA | Andrew Heaney | 80 | 106 | 10 | 109 | 6 | 98 | 14 | 87 | 7 | 101 |
Thorpe has not looked good in his little time in the major leagues. In his 44 innings of career work, he has a 6.14 ERA/4.77 FIP with a huge walk rate and a 1.43 HR/9 rate. The projections are a bit kinder to him, he is a bit more experienced, but I’ll believe it when I see it. This is a tough match-up for him and I think the Angels will hit early.
I’m much higher on Andrew Heaney. He had a rough time in his first start, but bounced back strong against Toronto with six shutout innings and nine strikeouts. The Twins are a tough offense, but so are the Blue Jays and I think he can hang on here.
Bet Angels First 5 Innings (-135)
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Jose Urquidy | 101 | 110 | 5 | 127 | 2 | 98 | 15 | 104 | 14 | |
| SEA | Yusei Kikuchi | 93 | 96 | 21 | 102 | 10 | 99 | 18 | 106 | 16 | 95 |
These are two hot offenses going against two pitchers that I don’t fully trust. Urquidy is the definition of league average and Kikuchi is one of the more up-and-down starters in the league.
For the season, the Astros ranks second in wRC+ with the Mariners ranking tenth. Both bullpens have their weaknesses as well and I think this one can easily go over.
Bet Astros/Mariners Over 8 Runs
