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The Bet MLB System has four picks for May 4th, 2021.
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | Eric Lauer | 4.41 (Career) | 99 | 17 | 86 | 26 | 121 | 27 | 123 | 25 | |
| PHI | Aaron Nola | 2.63 | 104 | 12 | 86 | 26 | 112 | 24 | 115 | 23 | 101 |
This is a nice price considering that the Phillies have their best pitcher on the mound. Nola has been great to start the season with a 3.11 ERA/2.63 FIP and I’m not very trusting of this Brewers offense even with Christian Yelich back.
Eric Lauer is the wildcard here. He’s a perfectly fine pitcher, but not one that I am expecting to dominate. The Phillies have been a much better team against lefties on the season.
Pick: Bet Phillies -0.5 First 5 Innings (-125)
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Sam Hentges | 6.04 (Projection) | 99 | 17 | 87 | 23 | 100 | 11 | 104 | 18 | |
| KCR | Mike Minor | 5.33 | 94 | 25 | 98 | 13 | 112 | 24 | 123 | 25 | 103 |
Neither one of these pitchers projects to be very good with both looking at FIPs over 5 runs. I can’t see either pitcher lasting very long in this game and both of these bullpens have been below average on the season.
The Indians have shown good power against lefties while the Royals have been hitting better over the past two weeks. The system sees this as a 10+ run go so I think it’s worth an over bet.
Pick: Bet Cleveland/Royals Over 8.5
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | Shane McClanahan | 4.91 (Projection) | 102 | 15 | 98 | 13 | 100 | 11 | 89 | 7 | |
| LAA | Alex Cobb | 2.38 | 106 | 10 | 114 | 1 | 92 | 7 | 98 | 14 | 101 |
Something’s got to give with Alex Cobb. He has a 7.16 ERA/2.37 FIP/2.44 xFIP on the season. All of his peripheral stats are good, but he’s just been getting killed on batting averages on balls in play and left on base percentage. That can’t last forever and he’s going to have a good start here soon. I think it will be today.
Either way, the Angels should hit here. Shane McClanahan has some nasty stuff, but little control of it. The Angels are good at not racking up too many strikeouts and can hit the ball very hard. I think it will be a tough night for him.
Pick: Bet Angels -116
Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | Anthony Kay | 4.91 (Projection) | 108 | 6 | 103 | 9 | 97 | 10 | 93 | 10 | |
| OAK | Cole Irvin | 3.48 | 107 | 8 | 104 | 8 | 101 | 14 | 92 | 9 | 93 |
Cole Irvin has been very solid this season with a 3.67 FIP/3.48 ERA. He’s at home here which should be a boost. He took the loss in his last start, but he only allowed two runs. His offense just did him no favors. The Jays offense has been great this year, but not so great against lefties.
They should be nicer to him here as the Athletics get a nice match-up with Anthony Kay. Kay struggled with his control mightily last season, a 6.9 K/9 rate, and the Athletics are one of the most patient teams in baseball. Oakland also has a huge 119 wRC+ against lefties on the season.
Pick: Bet Oakland -125
