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The Bet MLB System has four picks for May 5th, 2021.
3-1 record yesterday.
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | Freddy Peralta | 3.11 | 86 | 27 | 92 | 20 | 115 | 24 | 119 | 24 | |
| PHI | Chase Anderson | 4.82 | 87 | 26 | 86 | 25 | 111 | 22 | 112 | 18 | 101 |
We took the win with the Phillies yesterday in the first five innings. Aaron Nola was great and the offense did the job, but the bullpen very nearly blew it for them at the end.
Tonight, they aren’t facing Nola – they are facing Chase Anderson who is on the bottom end of starters in baseball. If that same offense that we saw yesterday shows up here, they should win this game no problem.
Freddy Peralta has been solid early and the Phillies offense has struggled of late. I think he’ll do well.
Pick: Bet Brewers -137
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Casey Mize | 5.51 | 69 | 30 | 51 | 30 | 140 | 30 | 128 | 28 | |
| BOS | Martin Perez | 3.59 | 115 | 1 | 99 | 16 | 85 | 3 | 110 | 16 | 105 |
Casey Mize has had some growing pains early and now he faces one of the top offense in the league. The Red Sox have been a surprise early with a solid offense and bullpen thus far.
Martin Perez is nothing to get excited about, but the Tigers offense has really been awful against lefties to start the year. They are one of the worst offenses in the league right now and there is no reason to think they should outscore Boston today.
Pick: Bet Red Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings (-135)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Walker Buehler | 3.08 | 109 | 4 | 101 | 14 | 102 | 15 | 108 | 15 | |
| CHC | Adbert Alzolay | 3.78 | 99 | 14 | 119 | 3 | 105 | 17 | 111 | 17 | 98 |
Walker Buehler is a great pitcher that is often overlooked. He has a 3.16 ERA/3.08 FIP on the season and faces a Cubs offense that has been below average against righties on the season. He’s a classic 2021 pitcher in that I don’t see him going past the sixth inning ever so he’s the perfect candidate for a 5-inning line.
Adbert Alzolay has a 4.71 ERA/3.78 FIP on the year which is slightly outpitching his projections. He faces one of the best offenses in the league tonight so I fully expect him numbers to get adjusted back towards where the projections see him finishing.
Pick: Bet Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-120)
Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | wRC+ | Rank | wRC+ L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | BP L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | Robbie Ray | 4.83 | 96 | 17 | 109 | 8 | 96 | 9 | 95 | 11 | |
| OAK | Chris Bassitt | 3.63 | 105 | 6 | 104 | 11 | 96 | 9 | 85 | 9 | 93 |
The Athletics got it done last night in a win for us and I like them even better today. Robbie Ray has been lucky early with a 2.78 ERA/4.83 FIP. He’s a guy who walks a lot of people and gives up a lot of homeruns, that’s exactly the type of pitcher that we love to target. Oakland has been very good against lefties early.
Chris Bassitt has an 3.93 ERA/3.63 FIP thus far. He’s solid. The Jays offense has struggled against righties and is really bad away from home at this point in the season.
Pick: Bet Oakland -128
