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Five MLB System picks for May 7th, 2021.
I’ve updated the tables that post with the match-ups to reflect some more of the stats that the MLB System looks at when making picks.
I also added a guide if you aren’t familiar with some of the stats listed.
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Washington Nationals at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | Patrick Corbin | 7.52 | 116 | 104 | 97 | 104 | 16 | 98 | 14 |
| NYY | 114 | 96 | 138 | 105 | 6 | 128 | 1 | ||
| NYY | Jameson Taillon | 4.22 | 127 | 91 | 71 | 74 | 2 | 78 | 5 |
| WSN | 80 | 98 | 80 | 91 | 20 | 90 | 21 |
Yankees against a lefty alert!
The Yankees have had their struggles early, but against lefties they have still been that team that we know. They are crushing teams with a 125 wRC+ against left handed pitching. Corbin has been awful early with some real bad starts with a 8.10 ERA/7.52 FIP and low strikeouts, high walks, and high homeruns. He’s not quite that bad, but he doesn’t exactly have it easy today either.
Taillon is a solid starter and the Nationals have shown no pop against right handed pitching this season. The Yankees should roll here.
Pick: Bet Yankees -1.5 (+113)
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Zac Gallen | 2.86 | 105 | 118 | 102 | 117 | 25 | 110 | 18 |
| NYM | 97 | 66 | 97 | 103 | 97 | 18 | 99 | 12 | |
| NYM | David Peterson | 4.5 | 98 | 91 | 114 | 66 | 1 | 55 | 1 |
| ARI | 99 | 111 | 98 | 102 | 99 | 13 | 101 | 10 |
The Mets offense is not one I fully trust yet and they are facing a solid pitcher in Zac Gallen today. He has a 3.48 ERA/2.86 FIP on the season with a big strikeout rate. The Mets offense doesn’t look that bad on paper, but they have been one of lowest homerun hitting teams thus far. This is a three true outcomes (walks, strikeouts, homers) league now and the Mets are going to fail two of the three today.
Arizona has absolutely crushed lefties early and David Peterson isn’t that good. An easy 5-inning pick here.
Pick: Bet Diamondbacks -105 First 5 Innings
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | Carlos Rodon | 2.18 | 102 | 113 | 134 | 93 | 6 | 106 | 17 |
| KCR | 98 | 89 | 91 | 100 | 98 | 16 | 94 | 18 | |
| KCR | Brad Keller | 6.01 | 95 | 73 | 115 | 120 | 28 | 136 | 28 |
| CHW | 111 | 74 | 97 | 118 | 111 | 2 | 110 | 7 |
Brad Keller has been crushed early with a 8.06 ERA/6.01 FIP. He’s not that bad, but he’s coming off an ugly start against the Twins. The White Sox tagged him for four runs earlier this season.
Rodon has been dominant early with a 0.72 ERA/2.18 FIP and the Royals are a below average offense against lefties. Easy pick.
Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | Austin Gomber | 4.65 | 126 | 101 | 143 | 115 | 24 | 122 | 25 |
| STL | 93 | 108 | 101 | 82 | 93 | 19 | 90 | 21 | |
| STL | Jack Flaherty | 3.28 | 92 | 122 | 88 | 95 | 8 | 82 | 8 |
| COL | 82 | 100 | 102 | 80 | 82 | 29 | 98 | 13 |
This is the Rockies right now: bad bullpen, weak offense, and bad starter on the mound.
This is the Cardinals right now: one of their best starters on the mound, solid bullpen that is playing well of late, and offense that crushes lefties.
This ain’t rocket science.
Pick: Bet Cardinals -1.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | Julio Urias | 2.81 | 101 | 112 | 88 | 103 | 15 | 111 | 20 |
| LAA | 110 | 118 | 91 | 78 | 110 | 3 | 100 | 11 | |
| LAA | Griffin Canning | 5.41 | 131 | 106 | 104 | 104 | 16 | 120 | 24 |
| LAD | 110 | 105 | 102 | 119 | 110 | 3 | 102 | 9 |
It just feels like the offense is going to play here. These have been two of the best offenses in the game thus far this season and it is going to be difficult to keep them from scoring runs.
I like the Dodgers better because of the match-up with Canning. He has 6.20 ERA/5.41 FIP on the year with walks and homeruns being an issue. That is not the issue you want to have against the Dodgers.
Urias’ stats look great and he is a very talented pitcher, but he’s not exactly faced a murderer’s row of offenses thus far this season. This will be by far his toughest match-up and I expect his ERA to be higher tomorrow than it is today.
Pick: Bet Angels/Dodgers Over 8.5
