May 8th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips



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Five MLB System picks for May 8th, 2021.

A 4-1 record last night.

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

What are these stats?

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+		 Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14		 Rank
Jose Berrios 2.34 91 106 91 117 25 137 29
DET 86 126 84 72 30 54 30
Jose Urena 3.24 82 79 121 137 30 124 26
MIN 115 100 93 104 9 96 15

This is the system’s favorite game of the day as it sees the Twins winning easily. Berrios has been excellent to start the season with a 3.58 ERA/2.31 FIP and faces a team that has struggled to hit all season. They have an awful 72 wRC+ and have somehow been even worse over the past two weeks.

The Twins offense has been good, but not as great as it has been projected to be. Match-ups like this one bode well as Urena has a low strikeout rate and high walk rate. He’s been very lucky with the longball early with his HR/FB rate sitting at 4.8% when he has been over 15% for the past two seasons.

Pick: Bet Twins -1.5 (-115)

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+		 Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14		 Rank
Erik Swanson 5.89 (Career) 140 102 92 93 6 90 11
TEX 104 113 94 98 16 112 5
Kohei Arihara 6.42 139 68 100 95 8 58 2
SEA 94 112 104 87 25 80 27

The system doesn’t often like the Rangers so when it does I take notice and Erik Swanson as the opener looks like a juicy match-up for this offense. He’s yet to allow a run this season, but he has a career 6.20 ERA/5.89 FIP. He’ll probably only go two to four innings here and I just don’t think the Mariners have enough depth in the pen to hold on here.

Arihara is no great shakes, but the Mariners offense has been struggling of late and doesn’t do well against right handed pitching. The Texas bullpen has, surprisingly, been very good early. At this price, it’s worth a shot.

Pick: Bet Rangers -110

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+		 Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14		 Rank
Garrett Richards 4.01 104 100 111 85 3 100 16
BAL   89 104 84 88 24 96 15
Zac Lowther 5.42 (Projection) 136 92 143 105 19 117 22
BOS   102 91 89 116 1 103 8

The Red Sox against a lefty alert!

Boston has done very well against lefties on the season with a 110 wRC+. They go against Zac Lowther who is one of these pitchers that is hard to define because of the lost 2020 minor league season. He’s pitched well in the minors in his career, but control has been an issue. The projections have him with a 5.21 ERA/5.42 FIP and this is not a kind match-up.

Garrett Richards has been solid to start the year and the Orioles offense stinks against right-handed pitching. They have just a 78 wRC+ on the season against righties. I would lay runs here if I needed to, but this price is fair.

Pick: Bet Red Sox -141

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+		 Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14		 Rank
Lance Lynn 2.29 116 110 95 93 6 106 17
KCR 89 91 100 98 16 94 18
Daniel Lynch 4.83 (Projection) 113 71 122 120 28 136 28
CHW 74 97 118 111 2 110 7

Lance Lynn is just one of those guys that gets it done. He has a tiny 1.82 ERA/2.27 FIP thus far this season and the Royals are an average offense.

The White Sox have been very good against lefties early and Daniel Lynch is nothing to get excited about. He doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts which will hurt him against a high contact team like the White Sox. This will only be his second MLB start and it’s likely to be another tough one.

Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+		 Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14		 Rank
Vince Velasquez 6.16 138 119 121 111 22 111 20
ATL 122 100 100 99 13 94 18
Ian Anderson 3.37 94 117 150 109 21 127 27
PHI 94 120 86 86 26 77 28

Vince Velasquez has always struggled with giving up homeruns. The Braves are one of the best homerun hitting teams in the league. It’s just that simple.

The Braves send Ian Anderson who has been very good to start the year with a 3.27 ERA/3.35 FIP. The Phillies offense has been pretty bad against righties on the year with just an 80 wRC+.

Pick: Bet Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings (-125)