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Four MLB System picks for May 11th, 2021.
1-1 in MLB last night. 1-1 in NBA.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Check out the MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Hoffman | 4.9 | 124 | 102 | 137 | 116 | 26 | 103 | 15 |
| PIT | 60 | 98 | 93 | 85 | 27 | 75 | 29 | |
| JT Brubaker | 4.03 | 91 | 91 | 109 | 87 | 3 | 81 | 8 |
| CIN | 128 | 107 | 89 | 102 | 10 | 84 | 24 |
The Reds offense absolutely went off last night and got us the over all by themselves. This total is set at the same number as yesterday and once again the system is digging the over.
Jeff Hoffman has a 4.39 ERA/4.90 FIP with a big walk rate. He’s coming off back-to-back starts where he’s given up three runs or more in four innings or less. I expect more out of the Pirates today.
Brubaker has been solid to start the season, but he’s also been lucky. He has a 2.78 ERA/4.03 FIP which is bolstered by a huge 91.4% left on base percentage. That is not sustainable. Hopefully the Reds bring that same energy here as they did yesterday.
Pick: Bet Reds/Pirates Over 7.5
Canada: Best Odds: Over 7.5 (1.89) at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: Over 7.5 (-115) at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: Over 7.5 (1.86) at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/11 12:58:33 PM EST but are subject to change.)
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwang-hyun Kim | 2.65 | 103 | 84 | 77 | 93 | 7 | 74 | 5 |
| MIL | 102 | 118 | 89 | 85 | 27 | 83 | 26 | |
| Freddy Peralta | 3.3 | 113 | 135 | 137 | 107 | 22 | 86 | 10 |
| STL | 108 | 99 | 84 | 97 | 14 | 101 | 12 |
Kwang-hyun Kim has been very solid to start the season for the Cardinals. He has a 3.41 ERA/3.45 FIP on the year and he’s made three straight starts only allowing one run. The Brewers offense has been good against lefties, but they are bad overall and really looking rough over the past two weeks.
Peralta projects as the better pitcher, but he has a tough match-up here. The Cardinals offense has been hitting the ball well over the past two. He’s struggled with walks and homeruns early, and the Cards could make him pay on the homers.
Both of these bullpens have been good of late, but the Cardinals is just smoking right now with a 74 FIP- over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Cardinals Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: Cardinals +120 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: Cardinals 2.2 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/11 12:58:33 PM EST but are subject to change.)
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinelson Lamet | 1.85 | 91 | 128 | 122 | 90 | 6 | 81 | 8 |
| COL | 100 | 101 | 82 | 79 | 29 | 73 | 30 | |
| Antonio Senzatela | 5.19 | 121 | 67 | 111 | 114 | 24 | 119 | 24 |
| SDP | 81 | 94 | 105 | 93 | 19 | 87 | 23 |
The system’s favorite game of the day sees the Padres over the Rockies. The only real question here is if this thing is going to play. I think it will as they missed a game yesterday and will go as late as they need to in order to get this one in.
Antonio Senzatela has had a rough start to the year with a 5.76 ERA/5.19 FIP. His strikeout rate is horrible, he’s pitching at Coors, and his offense is unlikely to do him any favors. Easy pick.
Pick: Bet Padres -1.5
Canada: Best Odds: at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/11 12:58:33 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 3 | 89 | 97 | 89 | 93 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| ARI | 111 | 99 | 102 | 97 | 14 | 90 | 19 | |
| Madison Bumgarner | 3.92 | 151 | 96 | 76 | 118 | 28 | 115 | 20 |
| MIA | 80 | 115 | 86 | 91 | 21 | 92 | 18 |
Madison Bumgarner hasn’t quite been the dumpster fire that he’s been over the past two seasons, but I still don’t quite believe in him. His hard hit percentage and the exit velocity is right in line with his past couple of seasons. I’m just not seeing a marked improvement in his stuff to justify thinking he’s good now. His last start was against the Marlins last week which I think is a boon to Florida. The Diamondbacks bullpen has been very bad this season as well.
I like Pablo Lopez against this offense. The Diamondbacks have hit for just an 88 wRC+ against righties this season and he has been very solid with a 2.04 ERA/3.13 FIP on the year. The Marlins bullpen has been one of the best in the league over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Marlins Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: +103 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: Marlins 2.03 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/11 12:58:33 PM EST but are subject to change.)
