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Four MLB System picks for May 17th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Webb | 3.81 | 74 | 91 | 108 | 121 | 28 | 108 | 22 |
| CIN | 126 | 100 | 90 | 106 | 5 | 96 | 18 | |
| Sonny Gray | 3.37 | 91 | 115 | 119 | 109 | 22 | 79 | 5 |
| SFG | 117 | 114 | 113 | 99 | 11 | 114 | 5 |
The system really likes the over here. I have toyed with the stats, the park effects, and everything else just to make sure there wasn’t a glitch or something, but it just really like this over. It has this game at over 9.5.
The Coors effect may hit the Reds here, but they have been excellent against right handed pitching on the season and Logan Webb is an average starter. I think they can get him out of the game early and get into the Giants bullpen which has been not good.
Sonny Gray goes for the Reds and he’s been very good. The recent stats show the Giants hitting well of late and the Reds bullpen has also struggled early.
Not totally in love with this pick, but 8 is a low total in today’s game and it’s worth a shot.
Pick: Giants/Reds Over 8
Canada: Best Odds: 1.94 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/17 12:55:13 PM EST but are subject to change.)
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 2.94 | 96 | 92 | 114 | 72 | 1 | 75 | 4 |
| ATL | 131 | 106 | 100 | 98 | 14 | 83 | 26 | |
| Max Fried | 4.95 | 86 | 102 | 107 | 108 | 20 | 102 | 18 |
| NYM | 70 | 100 | 103 | 92 | 20 | 84 | 24 |
I’m still not fully trusting the Mets offense, but they have been much better against left handed pitching on the season. Fried is an average-ish pitcher that doesn’t often go deep into games. The Braves bullpen has had their struggles.
Taijuan Walker has been killing it early with a 2.20 ERA/2.94 FIP. He’s not that good and the Braves offense is solid against righties, but I think he can survive. The Mets bullpen has been the best of the best in baseball this year and I think they will be the difference here.
Pick: Mets Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 2.31 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +136 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.36 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/17 12:55:13 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Keuchel | 4.67 | 91 | 77 | 94 | 85 | 3 | 66 | 2 |
| MIN | 119 | 97 | 97 | 106 | 5 | 105 | 12 | |
| J.A. Happ | 4.21 | 101 | 89 | 102 | 114 | 25 | 132 | 28 |
| CHW | 82 | 99 | 120 | 115 | 2 | 122 | 2 |
These two starters are pretty even. Neither one is great at getting strikeouts and they both have a tough match-up against a dangerous offense. These are two of the top five offenses in the league.
I’m looking at things to be pretty even early, but the bullpen is what should ultimately decide this one. The Sox have really been putting it together of late while the Twins have been imploding. If those trends hold here, this should be an easy win for the Sox.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.92 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -104 at SportsBetting.ag- 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/17 12:55:13 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Gray | 3.65 | 116 | 98 | 108 | 123 | 29 | 156 | 30 |
| SDP | 84 | 91 | 114 | 96 | 16 | 101 | 13 | |
| Yu Darvish | 3.15 | 99 | 123 | 89 | 94 | 7 | 99 | 15 |
| COL | 88 | 100 | 87 | 82 | 28 | 84 | 24 |
I believe in the Coors hangover. There are stats out there that bare it out, that the games that a team plays directly after a series at Coors sees their hitting struggle. Also, the Rockies aren’t good.
Yu Darvish is a tough pitcher and the Rockies offense ranks near the bottom of the league. Their bullpen is somehow even worse and the Padres should be able to drive Jon Gray out of the game early.
This line was a bit close on the system, but I really believe in it. The Padres dominate in all the stats between these two teams and this is a very juicy match-up for Darvish.
Pick: Padres -1.5
Canada: Best Odds: 2.10 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +112 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.12 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/17 12:55:13 PM EST but are subject to change.)
