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Three MLB System picks for May 22nd, 2021.
The Bet MLB System is cooking right now. 3-1 last night brings us to 27-19 for the month of May.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adbert Alzolay | 4.16 | 132 | 110 | 140 | 91 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| STL | 114 | 97 | 90 | 97 | 15 | 105 | 12 | |
| Miles Mikolas | 3.96 (Career) |
101 | 81 | 62 | 97 | 14 | 98 | 16 |
| CHC | 102 | 112 | 99 | 102 | 12 | 109 | 9 |
A bit of a risk here with Miles Mikolas making his first start since 2019 here, but he has a track record that I trust. He has a career 3.82 ERA/3.96 FIP and he always keeps his walks down. He gets a nice match-up against the Cubs here who have been average against righties on the year.
The difference in this game is Adbert Alzolay. He is not a pitcher I trust. He has a 4.62 ERA/4.58 on the season and he’s never had a start where he allowed less than two runs. He has a miniscule .209 BABIP which I don’t think lasts.
Pick: Bet Cardinals Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.98 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -102 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.98 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/22 11:24:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 2.15 | 98 | 98 | 79 | 90 | 6 | 106 | 20 |
| PHI | 95 | 119 | 93 | 92 | 19 | 105 | 12 | |
| Spencer Howard | 5.1 (Career) |
125 | 110 | 115 | 108 | 21 | 98 | 16 |
| BOS | 112 | 95 | 84 | 112 | 4 | 109 | 9 |
The odds on this one should be higher in my opinion. Nathan Eovaldi has been great this season with a 4.50 ERA/2.17 FIP. The Phillies offense has some dangerous hitters, but they are weak overall with just an 88 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Spencer Howard is very hittable and the Red Sox have a killer offense with a 111 wRC+ against righties on the year. The Philadelphia bullpen is trash.
Pick: Bet Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.80 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -125 at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/22 11:24:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | 3.73 | 129 | 107 | 138 | 94 | 9 | 85 | 7 |
| TOR | 127 | 94 | 93 | 106 | 6 | 127 | 4 | |
| Robbie Ray | 5.19 | 120 | 134 | 150 | 98 | 15 | 103 | 18 |
| TBR | 93 | 115 | 106 | 107 | 5 | 129 | 3 |
The minor league park that the Blue Jays are playing at is great for hitting and great for homeruns. The Blue Jays offense is strong against lefties and Shane McClanahan is hittable with a 4.67 ERA/3.73 FIP.
Robbie Ray does make me nervous, but I like his match-up against Tampa. They only have a 91 wRC+ against lefties on the season. Tampa also strikes out a lot and that is the one skill that Ray excels at. I think the Jays are worth a bet at this price.
Pick: Bet Blue Jays Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.79 at SportsBetting.ag- 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -118 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/22 11:24:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
