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MLB System picks for June 4th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 3.25 | 109 | 136 | 70 | 98 | 14 | 75 | 3 | |
| PHI | 85 | 117 | 94 | 92 | 21 | 96 | 18 | ||
| Zack Wheeler | 2.53 | 93 | 101 | 78 | 108 | 21 | 111 | 22 | |
| WSN | 87 | 99 | 85 | 93 | 18 | 85 | 24 |
Look, if I get the chance to bet Max Scherzer at this price I’m going to take it. He has some elite strikeout stuff and the Phillies strikeout a ton. The bullpen behind him has been performing very well of late and they should be able to get the job done here.
Wheeler is actually having the better season thus far, but I do not trust the bullpen behind him at all.
Pick: Bet Nationals Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: +104 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.04 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/04 12:23:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Urias | 2.82 | 102 | 113 | 81 | 97 | 12 | 103 | 18 |
| ATL | 140 | 109 | 100 | 102 | 11 | 125 | 2 | |
| Ian Anderson | 3.3 | 94 | 116 | 146 | 106 | 19 | 106 | 21 |
| LAD | 113 | 102 | 121 | 112 | 3 | 112 | 5 |
I like both of these pitchers, but I like the offenses a heck of a lot more here today. It should be pretty warm with a light breeze blowing out to left. These are two of the best offenses in the league and two of the best homerun hitting teams.
Again, both starters are solid – I just don’t see them going very deep into the game. The bullpens behind them are painfully average so I think they’ll be able to do some damage there.
Pick: Bet Dodgers/Braves Over 8.5
USA: Best Odds: -122 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.81 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/04 12:23:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Peacock | 4.53 | 104 | 72 | 119 | 111 | 22 | 88 | 10 |
| MIL | 97 | 116 | 99 | 84 | 28 | 91 | 20 | |
| Freddy Peralta | 2.94 | 107 | 136 | 132 | 111 | 22 | 90 | 11 |
| ARI | 87 | 102 | 96 | 93 | 18 | 101 | 13 |
This is a game where the system likes the Diamondbacks to win, but only by a small amount. However, the betting line on this game is like -200 in favor of the Brewers. The D-backs don’t hit my threshold for betting on the moneyline, but this is such a good value it would feel weird to pass it up.
Peralta is much better than Peacock, but this is just a deal where the Brewers offense is just so weak that it’s hard to have faith in them. They have just a 77 wRC+ against righties om the season. I can see the Brewers winning, but a one-run game is likely.
Pick: Bet Diamondbacks +1.5
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/04 12:23:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Turnbull | 2.8 | 89 | 96 | 114 | 117 | 28 | 90 | 11 |
| CHW | 87 | 99 | 119 | 114 | 2 | 106 | 8 | |
| Dallas Keuchel | 4.33 | 94 | 75 | 91 | 80 | 2 | 60 | 1 |
| DET | 79 | 117 | 97 | 85 | 26 | 94 | 19 |
The stats are showing the Tigers as the worst team in baseball against lefties. Just a 67 wRC+ and Keuchel is a groundball machine. Just a bad match-up for Detroit all around. The White Sox bullpen has been particularly excellent of late as well.
Turnbull is having a great season, but he’s facing one of the best offenses in the league here. The bullpen backing him up is very hittable.
Pick: Bet White Sox Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -147 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.68 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/04 12:23:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas | 4.67 | 109 | 104 | 93 | 91 | 8 | 77 | 4 |
| COL | 80 | 103 | 89 | 76 | 30 | 81 | 26 | |
| Jon Gray | 4.06 | 115 | 95 | 110 | 117 | 28 | 104 | 19 |
| OAK | 110 | 100 | 110 | 107 | 5 | 120 | 3 |
Another line where I just don’t get it. This is a borderline moneyline play according to the system as the Athletics should win this one easily. The Rockies offense just absolutely stinks with a 65 wRC+ against righties.
Gray is an average pitcher facing a tough AL offense that is hitting the ball very well of late. This pick couldn’t be any easier.
Pick: Bet Athletics Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -128 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/04 12:23:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
