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One NBA betting tip and three MLB System picks for June 23rd, 2021.
NBA Playoffs Betting Tips
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Tips:
The Milwaukee Bucks got the win in game seven against the Brooklyn Nets and are now the presumptive favorite to win the NBA Championship. It was a truly incredible game that saw Giannis secure his place among the game’s great players.
That said, there were definitely holes in their game and they very nearly blew the whole thing. They had a four-point lead with seconds left on the clock and coughed it up. If it hadn’t been for Kevin Durant’s toe being on the three-point line, they might not even be in this position.
Their offense has long stretches where they look aimless, but their defense is very good and carries them at times. I think they match up well and they are going to win this series, and quite possibly the Championship. However, I don’t believe in them fully on the offensive end and there are going to be some painful sequences in this series.
What I’m saying is -8.5 is an absolute bonkers number for this team. The Bucks were not a very good against the spread team on the season at 38-45 on the year and I don’t expect them to cover that here either. Do I think they’ll win? Sure, but -8.5 is a lot and they simply aren’t that dominant offensively.
Pick: Bet Hawks +8.5
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/23 1:43:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
MLB Betting Tips
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Duffy | 58 | 35 | 118 | 82 | 109 | 26 | 123 | 24 |
| NYY | 111 | 104 | 121 | 98 | 14 | 119 | 6 | |
| Michael King | 97 | 61 | 78 | 112 | 85 | 1 | 81 | 5 |
| KCR | 85 | 92 | 89 | 91 | 20 | 96 | 15 |
I don’t feel great about this one, but Danny Duffy has been really good this season with a 1.94 ERA/2.35 FIP. He’s been lucky, sure, but he’s also been pretty good. The Yankees offense, once the scariest thing in the world for a left handed pitcher, currently is about league average against lefties.
Michael King is pretty much league average and he might not even go the full five innings, but the Royals bullpen behind him has been very good on the season. The Royals offense has just an 89 wRC+ against righties on the year.
Pick: Bet Royals/Yankees Under 5.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/23 1:43:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray | 110 | 164 | 132 | 75 | 108 | 23 | 139 | 29 |
| MIA | 81 | 113 | 86 | 90 | 21 | 93 | 18 | |
| Trevor Rogers | 63 | 38 | 123 | 91 | 88 | 3 | 103 | 18 |
| TOR | 129 | 93 | 93 | 109 | 4 | 119 | 6 |
This is a solid match-up, but the pitching difference is just too big for me not to back the Marlins here.
Trevor Rogers has a 1.87 ERA/2.50 FIP on the season with some really great strikeout numbers and he keeps his homeruns down. I think as long as he can control the long ball, he can handle this Jays offense.
Robbie Ray has been better this season than in year’s past with a 3.50 ERA/4.37 FIP on the season. He’s not bad and this is a good match-up for him, but I just don’t see him going five shutout innings and I can see Rogers doing that.
Pick: Bet Marlins Moneyline First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: +102 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.02 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/23 1:43:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Kaprielian | 103 | 95 | 112 | 125 | 101 | 16 | 151 | 30 |
| TEX | 95 | 105 | 94 | 87 | 25 | 88 | 22 | |
| Mike Foltynewicz | 137 | 166 | 67 | 68 | 100 | 15 | 113 | 21 |
| OAK | 110 | 99 | 113 | 108 | 5 | 124 | 5 |
Mike Foltynewicz is a guy that we like to target. High HR/9 rate, low strikeouts. Oakland is a good hitting team, 105 wRC+ against righties, and they hit the long ball well. They are on fire over the past two weeks with a 124 wRC+.
James Kaprielian is an average-ish pitcher going against a below average offense. Easy pick.
Pick: Bet Oakland -1.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/23 1:43:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
