Follow @SBTSportBetting [Get Exclusive Tips on our Patreon, Ad-Free]
Three MLB System picks, one NBA tip, and one very juicy NBA futures tip for June 28th, 2021.
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns Betting Tips:
The Clippers have nothing to be ashamed of for this playoff run. Losing Serge Ibaka was enough to hurt most teams, but losing Kawhi Leonard should’ve been the nail in the coffin. Instead, this team made it to the Western Conference Finals by beating the top-seeded team in the West. Bravo.
That said, the Suns are just better in every way. They can win the shootout and they can win the slugfest as we saw in the last game, the lowest scoring game of this NBA season.
Pick: Suns -5.5
Canada: Best Odds: 1.91 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/28 11:49:06 AM EST but are subject to change.)
NBA Finals MVP Futures Betting Tips:
Since we are almost definitely getting the Bucks and Suns in the Finals I thought it would be a good time to check in on this market. Here’s what the odds look like today:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo +110
- Devin Booker +250
- Chris Paul +400
- Khris Middleton +750
Of the four, those are just incredible odds on Khris Middleton. If you watched the game last night, you know what this guy is capable of and I wouldn’t doubt for a second that he leads the Bucks in scoring in that series. Giannis will likely have a tough match-up on his hands with DeAndre Ayton defending him, but I don’t see anyone likely to shut down Khris in that way.
It’s not worth it to bet on the Bucks to win it all at this point, but Middleton MVP could pay off big if they do it. You rarely can catch a pay-off like that unless you play roulette. (Canadians can actually get this one at 13.00 right now!)
Pick: Khris Middleton Finals MVP
Canada: Best Odds: 13.00 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +750 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 9.00 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/28 11:49:06 AM EST but are subject to change.)
MLB Betting Tips
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Duffy | 58 | 35 | 118 | 82 | 112 | 27 | 143 | 27 |
| BOS | 108 | 101 | 84 | 104 | 9 | 116 | 8 | |
| Garrett Richards | 97 | 58 | 80 | 121 | 97 | 11 | 101 | 18 |
| KCR | 85 | 94 | 89 | 88 | 23 | 96 | 15 |
I really don’t get this total. The number for this one is set at 11 runs and I can’t for the life of me figure out why.
Danny Duffy has a 1.81 ERA/2.36 FIP on the season. He’s good. The Red Sox are a tough offense, but they are sitting on a 101 wRC+ against lefties on the year so it’s not like they crush everyone.
Garrett Richards is nothing great with a 4.74 ERA/4.53 FIP, but he’s facing the Royals who have just an 88 wRC+ on the season. He also has a solid groundball rate.
Now, it is very nice hitting weather with warm temps and wind blowing out, and the Royals bullpen stinks, but 11 runs is way too much. The system sees this game around 8.5 runs not considering the weather.
Pick: Bet Royals/Red Sox Under 11
Canada: Best Odds: 1.92 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -113 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.88 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/28 11:49:06 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hendricks | 127 | 172 | 79 | 52 | 89 | 4 | 100 | 16 |
| MIL | 99 | 114 | 104 | 87 | 24 | 81 | 26 | |
| Freddy Peralta | 68 | 68 | 151 | 117 | 105 | 19 | 99 | 15 |
| CHC | 116 | 116 | 91 | 93 | 16 | 68 | 28 |
The Brewers send one of their best pitchers to the mound today and I love the starter match-up. Freddy Peralta has a 2.11 ERA/2.79 FIP with a huge strikeout rate on the season. He’s going against a below average offense that also strikes out a ton. The Cubs have also been cold over the past two weeks with just a 68 wRC+.
Kyle Hendricks has been very lucky this season with a 3.84 ERA/5.07 FIP. The Brewers offense hasn’t been very impressive of late, but this is a good match-up for them. I think they can succeed early.
Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/28 11:49:06 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenta Maeda | 120 | 152 | 91 | 75 | 109 | 24 | 106 | 22 |
| CHW | 82 | 101 | 118 | 106 | 5 | 82 | 25 | |
| Lucas Giolito | 99 | 140 | 129 | 94 | 91 | 7 | 139 | 26 |
| MIN | 126 | 97 | 99 | 105 | 8 | 115 | 9 |
I had high hopes for the Twins this season, but they have just been snake bit all year and are now looking to possibly trade Eduardo Escobar to the White Sox. That’s never a good sign for future success and this match-up should be another tough one for them.
Lucas Giolito is a powerful pitcher with big strikeout stuff and a 3.80 ERA/4.18 FIP on the season. The bullpen behind him has struggled of late, but is still much better than the Twins has been this year.
Kenta Maeda has basically been a full run worse than Gio and that’s likely to be the deciding factor here. He’s sporting a 4.85 ERA/5.01 FIP on the season with a big homerun rate. The big issue with him this year has been his road starts and this game is on the road.
Pick: Bet White Sox Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.71 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -132 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/28 11:49:06 AM EST but are subject to change.)
