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Five MLB System picks for July 9th, 2021.
MLB Betting Tips
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JT Brubaker | 113 | 149 | 97 | 57 | 94 | 8 | 74 | 3 |
| NYM | 83 | 107 | 92 | 92 | 17 | 91 | 20 | |
| Taijuan Walker | 75 | 55 | 108 | 89 | 94 | 8 | 102 | 16 |
| PIT | 67 | 98 | 89 | 82 | 29 | 85 | 26 |
Taijuan Walker has been excellent this season, especially at home. He has a 2.44 ERA/3.07 FIP on the season and faces on of the bottom offenses in baseball against right handers. Walker has done a good job not allowing homeruns this season and the Pirates as an offense hit almost none. A great match-up for him.
The Mets offense always gives me worry, but Brubaker has some awful road numbers on the season. He has a 4.70 ERA/5.24 FIP in his away starts.
Pick: Bet Mets -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/09 12:54:42 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Velasquez | 116 | 134 | 105 | 133 | 109 | 25 | 122 | 22 |
| BOS | 108 | 99 | 86 | 104 | 8 | 107 | 14 | |
| Garrett Richards | 115 | 90 | 73 | 120 | 94 | 8 | 87 | 7 |
| PHI | 94 | 110 | 95 | 93 | 16 | 98 | 18 |
This pick ius all about the Red Sox offense going against Vince Velasquez and the Phillies bullpen. Velasquez has always struggled giving up homeruns and he has a 4.41 ERA/6.17 FIP on the road this season. He could go out early after giving up some runs and then give way to one of the worst bullpens in the league.
Garret Richards is not a great pitcher, but the Phillies have just an 88 wRC+ against righties on the season and the Red Sox bullpen is more trustworthy.
Pick: Bet Red Sox Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -127 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/09 12:54:42 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Irvin | 91 | 70 | 73 | 51 | 105 | 18 | 157 | 30 |
| TEX | 100 | 104 | 91 | 89 | 24 | 108 | 11 | |
| Jordan Lyles | 121 | 133 | 78 | 84 | 99 | 15 | 101 | 12 |
| OAK | 104 | 98 | 107 | 102 | 10 | 81 | 29 |
Irvin has lower strikeout numbers than I like, but he’s done great in keeping walks and homeruns down. He has a 3.56 ERA/3.73 FIP on the season and I expect him to do well today. The Rangers are a below average offense with just a 93 wRC+ against lefties.
The big thing here is the Athletics offense against Jordan Lyles. He has a 4.98 ERA/5.07 FIP and is very hittable. The Athletics have a 103 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Pick: Bet Athletics -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: +100 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/09 12:54:42 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | 76 | 53 | 82 | 69 | 112 | 27 | 90 | 8 |
| MIL | 101 | 113 | 107 | 90 | 21 | 123 | 3 | |
| Eric Lauer | 120 | 155 | 99 | 102 | 105 | 18 | 95 | 11 |
| CIN | 111 | 100 | 96 | 103 | 9 | 106 | 15 |
Wade Miley has continued to shine for the Reds and I like him to do well here today. He’s another guy that does a tremendous job of limiting walks and homeruns. The Brewers are a high strikeout team as well which should give him a boost.
Eric Lauer goes for the Brewers and I am not a fan. A huge homerun rate and a 4.11 ERA/4.92 FIP on the season. The Reds offense hasn’t been great against lefties, but they have a lot of power that they should be able to flex here.
Pick: Bet Reds First 5 Innings Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: -115 at
USA: Best Odds: 1.86 at
Everyone Else: Best Odds: at
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/09 12:54:42 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | 61 | 35 | 115 | 81 | 106 | 21 | 101 | 12 |
| SEA | 105 | 112 | 98 | 91 | 20 | 108 | 11 | |
| Marco Gonzales | 142 | 181 | 87 | 102 | 87 | 3 | 80 | 5 |
| LAA | 117 | 98 | 86 | 107 | 6 | 108 | 11 |
Marco Gonzales is not as bad as he has played this season, but this is a tough match-up no matter how you slice it. His walks and homeruns are way up over his past couple of seasons and he’s just not right. He has a 5.82 ERA/5.98 FIP on the season. The Angels are one of the tp offenses in baseball against lefties and they hit a lot of homeruns. This could be bad for him.
I really don’t understand Alex Cobb’s season, but his numbers are excellent. A 4.60 ERA/2.58 FIP with a huge strikeout rate, low walk rate, and extremely low homerun rate. He’s been outstanding and I see no reason not to back him against this Mariners offense that has just a 91 wRC+ on the season against righties.
Pick: Bet Angels Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -121 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.82 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/09 12:54:42 PM EST but are subject to change.)
