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Four MLB System tips for July 19th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerad Eickhoff | 232 | 366 | 43 | 76 | 102 | 17 | 143 | 29 |
| CIN | 107 | 102 | 95 | 101 | 10 | 96 | 21 | |
| Vladimir Gutierrez | 125 | 123 | 69 | 116 | 112 | 27 | 99 | 13 |
| NYM | 86 | 107 | 93 | 93 | 17 | 87 | 24 |
The total on this one is really high so not much is expected from either starter.
The Reds are a far better homerun hitting team and have a 106 wRC+ against righties on the season. The Mets have just an 91 wRC+ agaisnt righties. The Mets have the better overall bullpen, but over the past 30 days they have been a disaster.
We’re looking at a potential slugfest and if that’s the case, the Reds are the clear pick.
Pick: Bet Reds Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.88 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -113 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.88 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/19 12:52:08 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Gibson | 83 | 55 | 91 | 87 | 100 | 13 | 107 | 21 |
| DET | 93 | 115 | 102 | 90 | 20 | 102 | 16 | |
| Casey Mize | 109 | 111 | 84 | 80 | 111 | 26 | 106 | 19 |
| TEX | 101 | 103 | 92 | 90 | 20 | 105 | 12 |
A solid start to the season for Kyle Gibson who has a 2.29 ERA/3.47 FIP. He has a good groundball rate and is just solid all around. He does well keeping his homeruns down.
Casey Mize has a 3.59 ERA/4.73 FIP on the season and homeruns have been an issue. The Rangers offense is not great, but they have some serious power and I think they can do enough of that here to get the win. Neither bullpen is very good, but the Rangers is much better.
Pick: Bet Rangers Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.91 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/19 12:52:08 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Mills | 102 | 80 | 80 | 83 | 99 | 12 | 134 | 27 |
| STL | 89 | 96 | 85 | 88 | 25 | 80 | 28 | |
| Jake Woodford | 163 | 153 | 75 | 132 | 106 | 23 | 120 | 24 |
| CHC | 108 | 116 | 93 | 92 | 18 | 77 | 30 |
Only 25.1 MLB innings pitched this season for Woodford, but he doesn’t look to be very good. A somewhat low strikeout rate, high walks, and a high HR/9 rate thus far which is right in line with what the projections have for him. He’s just not that good and the Cubs can hit him today. The Cubs offense has issues, but they can hit the homerun and Woodford will give that up today.
I’m no big Alec Mills fan, but he’s an average pitcher going against a below average offense. You don’t need to be the best in the game to do well against the Cards.
Pick: Bet Cubs Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.87 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -112 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/19 12:52:08 PM EST but are subject to change.)
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | 64 | 54 | 128 | 76 | 100 | 13 | 80 | 3 |
| LAD | 115 | 100 | 115 | 111 | 3 | 114 | 8 | |
| Tony Gonsolin | 86 | 61 | 121 | 153 | 95 | 8 | 87 | 5 |
| SFG | 126 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 4 | 125 | 1 |
Kevin Gausman is the best starter going today by far. He has a 1.73 ERA/2.57 FIP with huge strikeout numbers and a great HR/9 rate. The Dodgers are a dangerous offense, but if anyone can shut them down it is a pitcher like Gausman.
These are two of the best offenses in baseball, but the starting pitcher difference is what makes the Giants look like the pick. Gonsolin has a 2.13 ERA/3.53 FIP with a very high walk rate. The Giants offense is one of the most patient in the game so they can really make him pay there.
Pick: Bet Giants First 5 Innings Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 2.04 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.04 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/19 12:52:08 PM EST but are subject to change.)
