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4-0 last night!
Three MLB System tips for August 7th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 147 | 198 | 98 | 112 | 88 | 3 | 93 | 14 |
| COL | 83 | 101 | 88 | 77 | 30 | 96 | 19 | |
| Austin Gomber | 90 | 107 | 102 | 83 | 110 | 27 | 106 | 20 |
| MIA | 82 | 115 | 83 | 87 | 26 | 96 | 19 |
I’m not sure how many times I have picked the Rockies this season, but it has to be in the single digits. We’re going to tip them here for the first five though.
Austin Gomber is a pretty solid pitcher with a 4.04 ERA/4.02 FIP on the year. The Marlins are pretty bad against lefties with a 84 wRC+. Plus, they traded away a lot of their good right handed hitters like Starling Marte.
Jesus Luzardo is not good and has been much worse on the road. The Rockies offense isn’t great against lefties either, but a 90 wRC+ is much better than an 84.
Pick: Bet Rockies -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/07 12:55:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Widener | 134 | 165 | 97 | 112 | 118 | 30 | 117 | 27 |
| SDP | 100 | 98 | 107 | 102 | 10 | 99 | 16 | |
| Yu Darvish | 90 | 117 | 124 | 66 | 92 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| ARI | 74 | 105 | 97 | 85 | 27 | 78 | 26 |
Yu Darvish has a 3.48 ERA/3.77 FIP on the season. He has a big strikeout rate, but he’s struggled with giving up homeruns. The Diamondbacks are one of the weakest teams in baseball for hitting homeruns so he should benefit there. The Padres bullpen behind him is one of the best in baseball and they have been doing well overall of late. I have the Diamondbacks as the 27th best offense in baseball, nothing to be a afraid of.
Taylor Widener has a 5.05 ERA/5.60 FIP on the season and has been worse in his road starts.
-150 is pretty expensive for a game where we are laying the runs, but this just looks like an absolute lock.
Pick: Bet Padres -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -150 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.66 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/07 12:55:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime Barria | 117 | 72 | 41 | 113 | 103 | 18 | 68 | 2 |
| LAD | 115 | 102 | 109 | 109 | 3 | 102 | 13 | |
| Julio Urias | 82 | 98 | 113 | 53 | 95 | 9 | 100 | 17 |
| LAA | 108 | 98 | 83 | 104 | 7 | 77 | 27 |
Two really good offenses going at it here. Julio Urias is good, but he’ll have his hands full with the Angels offense today. They have a 114 wRC+ on the season against lefties.
Jamie Barria is not so good and I’m not expecting much from him today. He’s only made four appearances this season, but his numbers are right in line with his career 4.43 ERA/5.02 FIP. He is hittable and the Dodgers have a 112 wRC+ for the year against righties.
Both bullpens are average and this total is on the low end. I think they can easily go over.
Pick: Bet Dodgers/Angels Over 8.5
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/07 12:55:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)
