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A huge post today with six MLB System picks for August 10th, 2021 .
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Patino | 106 | 116 | 105 | 89 | 84 | 1 | 71 | 4 |
| BOS | 106 | 99 | 90 | 104 | 7 | 88 | 24 | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 81 | 95 | 123 | 82 | 93 | 8 | 78 | 5 |
| TBR | 106 | 112 | 112 | 103 | 9 | 117 | 4 |
The Rays have a 91 wRC+ against lefties on the season and are facing a tough one today in Rodriguez. He has been unlucky with a high BABIP and low left on base percentage, but the stuff is absolutely there. Eduardo has a 5.33 ERA/3.38 FIP and he’s just dying for some regression. The Rays offense could provide that for him here today.
Not a big sample size on Patino. He has great stuff, but he’s allowed three or more runs in four of his past five starts. The Red Sox offense is dangerous and has a 104 wRC+ on the season against righties.
Pick: Bet Red Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.71 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | 79 | 84 | 114 | 64 | 99 | 12 | 70 | 3 |
| CLE | 105 | 101 | 88 | 89 | 23 | 93 | 21 | |
| Triston McKenzie | 131 | 151 | 116 | 173 | 92 | 5 | 109 | 22 |
| OAK | 101 | 99 | 104 | 101 | 12 | 98 | 17 |
This is the system’s favorite F5 play of the day and it’s easy to see why.
Manaea has an excellent 3.26 ERA/3.24 FIP on the season. He faces a Cleveland offense that has just a 90 wRC+ against lefties and is just not that exciting outside of the one good player.
Triston McKenzie has a 5.89 ERA/5.54 FIP on the season. He’s been better in his home starts, but not enough to swing things away from Oakland.
Pick: Bet Oakland -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 85 | 101 | 124 | 97 | 112 | 28 | 112 | 23 |
| ATL | 117 | 109 | 101 | 99 | 15 | 105 | 9 | |
| Drew Smyly | 123 | 148 | 87 | 93 | 99 | 12 | 79 | 6 |
| CIN | 108 | 103 | 98 | 102 | 10 | 140 | 1 |
Five inning bets are essentially bets on starters. This match-up sees a huge gap between the quality of the two starters and that should be the difference.
Sonny Gray has a 3.67 ERA/4.15 FIP on the season with a great groundball rate. While the Braves are dangerous, Gray has actually been much stronger in his road starts this season.
Drew Smyly has been worse at home this year with a 5.29 FIP. He has one of the highest HR/9 rate of any pitcher going today and the Reds are a very good homerun hitting team.
Pick: Bet Reds First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Keuchel | 119 | 119 | 63 | 87 | 92 | 5 | 95 | 15 |
| MIN | 120 | 96 | 103 | 105 | 6 | 115 | 5 | |
| Griffin Jax | 145 | 177 | 69 | 103 | 106 | 23 | 106 | 20 |
| CHW | 91 | 100 | 117 | 108 | 4 | 72 | 28 |
Griffin Jax is very hittable. He’s only made a few starts, but he has a 5.63 ERA/6.17 FIP with high walks and homeruns, and low strikeouts. Exactly the kind of pitcher we like to target. The White Sox offense is somehow getting better as the season goes on with Eloy Jimenez heating up and the return of Luis Robert.
Dallas Keuchel is kind of a hard pitcher to trust, but he does get the groundball and he had a decent start last time he faced the Twins. As long as he doesn’t implode, I think the White Sox can take this easily.
Pick: Bet White Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -145 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)
New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 65 | 38 | 116 | 101 | 87 | 2 | 84 | 8 |
| KCR | 88 | 94 | 84 | 89 | 23 | 85 | 25 | |
| Daniel Lynch | 102 | 79 | 70 | 86 | 112 | 28 | 99 | 16 |
| NYY | 102 | 104 | 125 | 100 | 13 | 93 | 21 |
All we’re hoping for here is not a repeat from last night when it took eight innings for these offenses to wake up.
The Yankees are a great offense against lefties and Daniel Lynch is a low strikeout pitcher with a 6.00 ERA/4.24 FIP. He profiles as someone the Yankees should hit.
Plus, it will be warm with some nice hitting weather.
Pick: Bet Yankees First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -130 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.80 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolby Allard | 107 | 130 | 89 | 60 | 98 | 11 | 88 | 13 |
| SEA | 104 | 111 | 103 | 92 | 19 | 103 | 12 | |
| Logan Gilbert | 78 | 74 | 120 | 75 | 88 | 3 | 114 | 25 |
| TEX | 92 | 103 | 91 | 84 | 28 | 66 | 30 |
Gilbert has been impressive this year with some big strikeout stuff and he hasn’t allowed a lot of homeruns. The Rangers don’t have a ton of power to begin with and this game will take place at the pitcher friendly T-Mobile Park. I think he can have a good game here.
Kolby Allard has a 5.07 ERA/4.47 FIP on the season and he’s pitching on the road. I think the Mariners can hit him early, but this will be close.
Pick: Bet Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)
