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Four MLB System tips for August 11th, 2021.
A 2-2-2 record last night.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | 119 | 161 | 108 | 98 | 106 | 23 | 104 | 18 |
| BAL | 96 | 102 | 89 | 92 | 19 | 101 | 14 | |
| Matt Harvey | 99 | 94 | 69 | 75 | 99 | 12 | 112 | 23 |
| DET | 94 | 111 | 102 | 94 | 18 | 104 | 10 |
I can’t believe I am going to bet on Matt Harvey, but he’s earned it. None of his peripherals are that exciting. He has a 6.13 ERA/4.38 FIP on the season. He’s clearly been unlucky though with a ridiculously low 59.3% left on base. I don’t trust him, but I like his match-up. The Tigers have just a 94 wRC+ against righties on the season.
What I really like here is the Orioles offense. They have a 108 wRC+ on the year against lefties and Tarik Skubal can be hit. He has a 4.32 ERA/5.15 FIP, a really high homerun rate, and he’s been worse on the road all season. Easy pick on Baltimore here.
Pick: Bet Orioles Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 2.00 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +104 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/11 11:06:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 93 | 91 | 97 | 72 | 103 | 18 | 80 | 7 |
| PIT | 65 | 97 | 92 | 84 | 28 | 70 | 29 | |
| Wil Crowe | 144 | 178 | 89 | 121 | 100 | 15 | 119 | 28 |
| STL | 90 | 99 | 85 | 88 | 25 | 104 | 10 |
The Cardinals are far from my favorite hitting team, but Wil Crowe is very hittable. He has a 5.47 ERA/6.01 FIP on the season and really struggles with walks and homeruns. The Cardinals have hit better in the second half with a 106 wRC+.
Wainwright is solid enough with a 3.48 ERA/3.86 FIP. The Pirates offense is one of the bottom in the league.
Pick: Bet Cardinals -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.82 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/11 11:06:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Fleming | 103 | 81 | 67 | 71 | 84 | 1 | 71 | 4 |
| BOS | 106 | 99 | 90 | 104 | 7 | 88 | 24 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 67 | 45 | 99 | 53 | 93 | 8 | 78 | 5 |
| TBR | 106 | 112 | 112 | 103 | 9 | 117 | 4 |
The Red Sox were up 4-1 after five innings last night (giving us the win) and then ended up losing 8-4. This is why we bet the five inning lines.
This game looks like another great spot to do the five inning. Nathan Eovaldi has had bad luck, but really been excellent with a 4.07 ERA/2.77 FIP. A high BABIP and low left on base has hurt him, but he’s been even better in his home starts.
Josh Fleming is solid, but he’s been much worse on the road this season.
Pick: Bet Red Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.79 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.80 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/11 11:06:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | 82 | 56 | 79 | 84 | 112 | 28 | 112 | 23 |
| ATL | 117 | 109 | 101 | 99 | 15 | 105 | 9 | |
| Touki Toussaint | 112 | 134 | 105 | 72 | 99 | 12 | 79 | 6 |
| CIN | 108 | 103 | 98 | 102 | 10 | 140 | 1 |
I like Wade Miley in this match-up. He’s good at keep down his walks and homeruns, and the Braves are a slightly below average against lefties.
Touki Toussaint only has a few starts under his belt, but he’s right where the projections have him at with a 4.43 ERA/4.65 FIP. The homerun ball is a struggle for him and the Reds are pretty good at hitting them.
Pick: Bet Reds Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 2.00 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/11 11:06:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
