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The Masters brings a great chance for picking a winner that a lot of tournaments don’t have. Because the amazing Augusta National is the home course every year, we can see plenty of trends emerge over the years. I’m using stats going back to 2009 to help me this year, and I’m going to give a some tips on a few markets that are available this year, as there is more than just picking the winner to make you some money (although we will be giving a tip on the outright winner).
Obviously, we are going to start with trying to pick this year’s winner, so lets look back at the winners of the previous few years.
Last year Jordan Spieth won his first major title, in one of the best individual performances at Augusta since the heyday of Tiger Woods. His victory followed up his 2nd place finish back in 2014 (his debut) and despite some inconsistent form he will be top of most people’s lists this year.
Bubba Watson won twice in 2012 and 2014, with Adam Scott’s maiden title sandwiched in between. While Scott had finishes of 8th and 2nd in his previous two Masters, Watson bucked the usual trend of having good recent Augusta form with his two victories (he didn’t finish in the top 25 in 2011 (38th) or 2013 (50th)).
Charl Schwartzel in 2011 and Angel Carbrea in 2009 followed up their top 30 finishes in their previous appearance to win, while Phil Mickelson finished 5th in 2009 before his 2010 victory.
What we can tell from this, is previous year’s form is very important. For the winner we will be looking at the top 25 from 2015 to try and find a winner. This automatically rules out current world number one Jason Day who finished just out of the top 25 last year. Most players need a few good rounds on this course before they are counted as contenders, reigning champion Spieth is the very obvious exception with him finishing 2nd on his debut appearance.
Our first pick is a very obvious pick, but we need to go with Rory McIlroy. With Day and Spieth joining McIlroy as the top players in the world, we are getting better odds than we have been in previous years for Rory. The Northern Irishman finished 4th last year and 8th in 2014 and should have ran away with the green jacket back in 2011, but a horrible final round cost him big time.
Our other tip for the green jacket is Dustin Johnson. After recovering from some personal issues which caused him to take an enforced break from golf, DJ has come back with no loss of form. A 6th place finish last year, along with 13th in 2013 shows he knows his way around the course. Add in his current form and Johnson has a great chance of finally breaking his major duck with the biggest one of them all. His price is also big enough to take him each way, so you will get something back if he repeats his top 6 finish in 2015.
Our next bet is to take someone to finish in the top 10 and because of the odds, top 20 also. The thing about the Masters, is no matter what your form is coming in, a player with good past form can find his way around the course better than most. One such man is Lee Westwood.
Westwood has one of the most consistent runs of anyone at Augusta, 2-11-3-8-7 between 2010-2014, before finishing 46th last year. While we won’t be taking the Englishman at 150/1 to win, his chances of a top 10/20 finish are very good, especially at the odds currently available.
Top debutant is another market out there with good prices. There are two outstanding candidates at the top of the betting, Rafael Cabrera-Bello and our tip, Kevin Kisner. Kisner is not the normal Augusta rookie. He grew up only 30 miles away and made his first trip to the course in 1996 and has played here serveral times in the past during his University of Georgia days. This experience could lead him to finishing very high up the leaderboard and we are sure he will end up as top debutant.
Tips:
McIlroy – To Win
D Johnson – To Win & Each Way
Westwood – Top 10
Westwood – Top 20
Kisner – Top Debutant
