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Four MLB System tips for August 16th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/16 12:41:28 PM EST but are subject to change.)
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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Touki Toussaint | 118 | 136 | 103 | 87 | 98 | 11 | 91 | 11 |
| MIA | 85 | 116 | 84 | 90 | 23 | 113 | 10 | |
| Braxton Garrett | 99 | 72 | 90 | 111 | 90 | 4 | 102 | 20 |
| ATL | 112 | 107 | 103 | 99 | 14 | 107 | 14 |
Braxton Garrett has allowed two runs or less in five of his six starts this season. His last one was a mess, but he’s really been wracking up the strikeouts of late. He has a 4.65 ERA/4.05 FIP on the year, but I like the way he’s trending. The Braves offense only has a 93 wRC+ on the season against lefties.
The Marlins offense is not that great either with a 92 wRC+ against righties, but I like their match-up a lot more. Touki Toussaint is a guy who I think is hittable. He’s only made five starts on the year and his overall numbers look okay, but he’s allowed five homeruns over his past four starts and struggled with the walk. Every time out he’s a ticking time bomb that is ready to let the offense explode.
This is a game where the System likes the Marlins, but not enough to meet the threshold where I think they are a likely winner. I like the starter match-up and the Marlins bullpen has been better on the year. I just don’t fully trust it though so I’ll take the runs.
Pick: Bet Marlins +1.5
USA: Best Odds: -122 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.81 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/16 12:41:28 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Harvey | 100 | 95 | 70 | 78 | 104 | 20 | 155 | 30 |
| TBR | 106 | 111 | 113 | 105 | 7 | 121 | 3 | |
| Collin McHugh | 34 | 16 | 158 | 60 | 85 | 1 | 99 | 18 |
| BAL | 96 | 102 | 87 | 93 | 17 | 108 | 13 |
This is my revenge for the game I took last week where we bet on Matt Harvey. He has been unlucky at this season with a really high BABIP and low left on base percentage, but a 6.10 ERA/4.45 FIP isn’t good. He doesn’t strike anyone out and he gets a very tough match-up against the Rays here. Tampa has a 112 wRC+ against righties on the season.
The Rays will open with Colin McHugh and then follow with Josh Fleming. The offense is much better against lefties, but against righties they have just an 86 wRC+. They have a 93 wRC+ overall on the season.
Tampa has been especially hot of late with a 121 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They also have one of the league’s best bullpens. I think they roll here.
Pick: Bet Rays -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -130 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.75 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
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Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas | 84 | 86 | 112 | 76 | 99 | 12 | 93 | 12 |
| CHW | 100 | 101 | 116 | 109 | 3 | 114 | 9 | |
| Dallas Keuchel | 121 | 118 | 61 | 91 | 94 | 7 | 109 | 23 |
| OAK | 102 | 97 | 106 | 105 | 7 | 142 | 1 |
Dallas Keuchel is just not having a great year. He has a 4.51 ERA/5.23 FIP on the season and homeruns have been a problem. The Athletics have a very good offense with a 106 wRC+ against lefties on the year.
I love the White Sox, but this is a tough match-up against Frankie Montas. He has a 3.98 ERA/3.48 FIP on the year with big strikeouts and he’s done a great job of keeping his walks and homeruns down. For the first couple times through the order, I think he’ll get it done.
Pick: Bet Athletics -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/16 12:41:28 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 92 | 58 | 79 | 93 | 94 | 7 | 103 | 22 |
| MIN | 109 | 98 | 104 | 104 | 9 | 105 | 15 | |
| Griffin Jax | 139 | 185 | 85 | 94 | 105 | 21 | 98 | 17 |
| CLE | 100 | 101 | 90 | 89 | 24 | 98 | 19 |
This is a straight-up bet against Griffin Jax. He has been hit hard in his starts and has a 5.45 ERA/5.94 FIP on the season. The Indians offense isn’t all that great, but they should be able to hit him today.
Cal Quantrill is pretty decent with a 3.13 ERA/3.92 FIP on the season. He’s not likely to go deep, but we aren’t betting on this game going deep either. We’re betting on the first five. He should be able to get it done.
Pick: Bet Indians First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: +110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.10 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/16 12:41:28 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Bet Horse Racing - +£21,565.98 profit on £25/pt staking. Click for more details.
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