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Four MLB System tips for August 25th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Yarbrough | 105 | 114 | 84 | 48 | 83 | 1 | 88 | 8 |
| PHI | 97 | 106 | 101 | 92 | 17 | 64 | 30 | |
| Zack Wheeler | 58 | 53 | 124 | 61 | 108 | 26 | 95 | 11 |
| TBR | 108 | 111 | 113 | 107 | 5 | 124 | 3 |
Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher on the board today with a 2.77 ERA/2.53 FIP. He draws a tough match-up here, but he’s been great this season at keeping his walks and homeruns down while excelling in strikeouts.
Ryan Yarbrough is a decent pitcher, but he’s had his worst starts of the year on the road. The Phillies have a 103 wRC+ against lefties on the year.
I wouldn’t go with this for the full game, but it looks like a solid bet for the 5 innings with the way Wheeler has been going this year.
Pick: Bet Phillies -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.83 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: at -120 BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/25 11:23:18 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | 92 | 120 | 122 | 82 | 92 | 5 | 102 | 14 |
| TOR | 113 | 90 | 94 | 111 | 2 | 95 | 18 | |
| Robbie Ray | 91 | 117 | 131 | 74 | 105 | 21 | 118 | 25 |
| CHW | 98 | 101 | 114 | 109 | 3 | 108 | 12 |
These are two pretty good starters so they could screw us here, but these offenses are just killers and I believe they will put up some big numbers in Toronto today.
Both pitchers are great with big strikeout numbers, but the long ball has been a problem. Both of these teams can hit them. The White Sox have a 111 wRC+ against lefties on the season while the Jays have a 111 wRC+ against righties.
The bullpens should help us out here. The White Sox have only been average of late while the Jays have been downright awful.
Pick: Bet White Sox/Jays Over 8.5
Canada: Best Odds: 1.93 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -101 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/25 11:23:18 AM EST but are subject to change.)
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San Francisco Giants at New York Mets Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 98 | 101 | 90 | 62 | 93 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| NYM | 85 | 106 | 93 | 92 | 17 | 78 | 27 | |
| Taijuan Walker | 104 | 103 | 96 | 100 | 100 | 13 | 104 | 15 |
| SFG | 113 | 108 | 104 | 107 | 5 | 114 | 6 |
These pitchers are basically the Spiderman meme to me. Nothing spectacular about either, just average at pretty much everything and because of that they have success.
The difference here is the offenses and the bullpens. The Giants bullpen has been killing it of late with a 67 FIP-. They, along with Cueto, get a nice match-up as the Mets have just a 91 wRC+ against righties and a 78 wRC+ over the past two weeks. While the Giants are one of the best offenses in the NL right now. They have a 114 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Giants Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 2.05 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +107 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/25 11:23:18 AM EST but are subject to change.)
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Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | 113 | 156 | 105 | 70 | 107 | 24 | 127 | 27 |
| BOS | 110 | 97 | 95 | 106 | 7 | 140 | 1 | |
| Nick Pivetta | 100 | 101 | 112 | 120 | 94 | 9 | 106 | 16 |
| MIN | 108 | 98 | 105 | 103 | 9 | 113 | 8 |
The price is a bit high on this one, but I don’t trust any pitcher for the Twins that will appear in this game and the Red Sox offense is just killing it right now.
Ober has 1.98 HR/9 rate which is not the kind of numbers you want to have against this offense at this ballpark. The Twins bullpen has been bad all season, but especially bad of late with a 127 FIP- over the past two weeks. The Red Sox offense is scorching with a 140 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Red Sox Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.57 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -153 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.64 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/25 11:23:18 AM EST but are subject to change.)
