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Three MLB System tips for September 13th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin McHugh | 53 | 38 | 139 | 66 | 87 | 1 | 87 | 2 |
| TOR | 114 | 89 | 97 | 112 | 2 | 167 | 1 | |
| Alek Manoah | 100 | 88 | 114 | 99 | 104 | 21 | 105 | 21 |
| TBR | 110 | 109 | 110 | 108 | 4 | 126 | 3 |
This is a bullpen game for the Rays and there are few teams I trust more to do that than them. Collin McHugh has been outstanding, but he’s only going to go about two innings. The Jays offense is absolutely on fire of late, but I think the Rays can play the match-ups well enough over those next three innings to get the advantage here.
Alek Manoah is about as average as they come. He draws a tough match-up against this Rays offense that has a 111 wRC+ against righties on the season and is hot of late with a 126 wRC+. They aren’t quite as hot as the Jays are, but they have the much more favorable pitching match-up.
Pick: Bet Rays First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: +105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.18 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/13 1:26:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
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St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 84 | 71 | 97 | 69 | 99 | 12 | 98 | 11 |
| NYM | 88 | 106 | 92 | 96 | 16 | 125 | 4 | |
| Rich Hill | 111 | 102 | 93 | 96 | 99 | 12 | 100 | 15 |
| STL | 93 | 100 | 88 | 93 | 20 | 91 | 19 |
The Mets have been getting it done lately, but I don’t like this match-up for them whatsoever.
Rich Hill is past his prime and has a 3.82 ERA/4.41 FIP on the season. He’s firmly below average and facing a Cardinals offense that is very much above average against left-handed pitching.
Adam Wainwright takes the hill for the Cardinals and he has been excellent all season with a 2.98 ERA/3.51 FIP. The Mets have hit well of late, but they’ve struggled against righties this season with a 96 wRC+.
Pick: Bet Cardinals Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -105 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/13 1:26:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 84 | 98 | 117 | 78 | 95 | 9 | 95 | 8 |
| SEA | 93 | 111 | 106 | 92 | 22 | 100 | 14 | |
| Logan Gilbert | 88 | 103 | 112 | 60 | 87 | 1 | 86 | 1 |
| BOS | 110 | 98 | 97 | 106 | 5 | 105 | 11 |
The margins here are razor thing, but this is playoff baseball for all intents and purposes, and I think these teams will play this game as such. Boston is tied for the Wild Card right now with the Yankees breathing down their neck at one game back. The Mariners sit three back so this series could decide the whole season for them.
Logan Gilbert has been great (but unlucky) for them this year with a 5.10 ERA/3.70 FIP. The strikeouts are there and he keeps the walks down, he just needs some better left on base percentage luck.
Eduardo Rodriguez has been huge (but unlucky) for Boston this season with a 5.15 ERA/3.54 FIP. His BABIP is a ridiculous .358. Tonight is a good night to see some regression as the Mariners have just a 92 wRC+ against lefties on the season.
Pick: Bet Red Sox/Mariners Under 8 Runs
USA: Best Odds: -123 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.81 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/13 1:26:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
