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Four MLB System tips for September 17th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 61 | 60 | 124 | 61 | 106 | 25 | 136 | 24 |
| NYM | 88 | 106 | 92 | 96 | 16 | 119 | 5 | |
| Taijuan Walker | 107 | 117 | 98 | 94 | 99 | 12 | 130 | 23 |
| PHI | 98 | 103 | 102 | 95 | 17 | 105 | 12 |
The System continues to love Zack Wheeler starts and why not? He has a 2.86 ERA/2.67 FIP on the season with outstanding strikeout, homerun, and walk rates. He’s everything we look for in a starter. The Mets have been hot of late, but they have a 96 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Tajuan Walker is a pretty average pitcher, maybe slightly below average. Average rates across the board and a 4.29 ERA/4.46 FIP on the year.
Both of these bullpens stink right now so there is a bit of risk here. I just see Wheeler carrying the load early and the Phillies holding on.
Pick: Bet Phillies Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.8 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/17 12:19:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize | 111 | 114 | 82 | 82 | 104 | 21 | 97 | 10 |
| TBR | 110 | 109 | 110 | 108 | 4 | 120 | 4 | |
| Luis Patino | 114 | 119 | 99 | 112 | 87 | 1 | 122 | 20 |
| DET | 95 | 111 | 97 | 93 | 20 | 101 | 16 |
Key stat I am looking at here is the HR/9 rates of both of these pitchers and they are not good.
Both starters are below average overall and give up the long ball. Mize has a 1.48 HR/9 rate. Patino has a 1.54 HR/9 rate.
The Rays are the much better offense, obviously, but I think the Tigers will do enough to get us to the over.
Pick: Bet Tigers/Rays Over 8.5 Runs
USA: Best Odds: -112 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.89 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/17 12:19:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | 84 | 92 | 134 | 115 | 90 | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| TEX | 86 | 101 | 86 | 84 | 28 | 80 | 26 | |
| Taylor Hearn | 118 | 131 | 95 | 106 | 100 | 15 | 105 | 14 |
| CHW | 97 | 100 | 113 | 109 | 3 | 104 | 14 |
This pick is just White Sox versus a lefty. They have a 115 wRC+ on the season against southpaws and Taylor Hearn is not a guy who is going to move that number down.
Dylan Cease has been very sold this season with a 4.22 ERA/3.66 FIP with a huge strikeout rate. The Rangers offense has just an 86 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -130 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/17 12:19:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Velasquez | 129 | 153 | 101 | 141 | 94 | 7 | 136 | 24 |
| STL | 93 | 100 | 88 | 93 | 20 | 100 | 17 | |
| Miles Mikolas | 119 | 112 | 66 | 78 | 99 | 12 | 75 | 3 |
| SDP | 93 | 98 | 108 | 98 | 14 | 82 | 24 |
The Padres bullpen is struggling of late. They have a 136 FIP- over the past two weeks which is just awful. They won’t get much help from their starter here as Velasquez is always hittable. He has a huge homerun rate and a 5.95 ERA/5.59 FIP on the season.
Miles Mikolas gives me some pause, but I think he’s due for a decent start. He has a 5.47 ERA/4.92 FIP in his six starts. The Cardinals bullpen has been excellent of late with a 75 FIP- over the past two weeks.
All games come down to pitching and I am trusting the Cardinals at home a lot more here.
Pick: Bet Cardinals Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -123 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.81 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/17 12:19:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
