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Five MLB System tips for September 25th, 2021.
A 2-2 record last night.
MLB Betting Tips:
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 105 | 95 | 97 | 90 | 101 | 17 | 117 | 21 |
| MIL | 96 | 107 | 105 | 93 | 19 | 81 | 25 | |
| Corbin Burnes | 37 | 28 | 152 | 58 | 100 | 14 | 80 | 5 |
| NYM | 89 | 106 | 93 | 97 | 13 | 110 | 10 |
Corbin Burnes in the first five innings. Need I say more?
Burnes’ numbers almost seem fake. A 2.34 ERA/1.58 FIP on the season with a 12.59 K/9 rate. This guy is unhittable. He’s pitching at home here against an average team against righties. He should do well.
Rich Hill has been solid this year, but he’s been worse on the road. The Brewers offense isn’t in a good place right now, but like I always say with Burnes starts: they only need one.
Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -138 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.72 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/25 10:29:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray | 81 | 111 | 142 | 74 | 102 | 19 | 146 | 30 |
| MIN | 107 | 100 | 103 | 100 | 11 | 105 | 14 | |
| John Gant | 113 | 63 | 83 | 167 | 104 | 22 | 83 | 8 |
| TOR | 116 | 88 | 98 | 114 | 2 | 125 | 4 |
Robbie Ray has been very good this season with a 2.72 ERA/3.41 FIP. The Twins offense has struggled against lefties with a 96 wRC+.
This tip is all about the Jays offense though. They struggled last night, but I like their match-up against John Gant. They have a 113 wRC+ on the season while Gant has a 3.76 ERA/4.69 FIP with a terrible walk rate. This is not the kind of offense you want to rack up the walks against.
Pick: Bet Jays -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -130 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/25 10:29:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huascar Ynoa | 85 | 90 | 115 | 79 | 96 | 9 | 93 | 10 |
| SDP | 92 | 97 | 106 | 97 | 13 | 93 | 20 | |
| Vince Velasquez | 131 | 161 | 102 | 135 | 97 | 10 | 118 | 23 |
| ATL | 111 | 106 | 100 | 98 | 12 | 100 | 17 |
Vince Velasquez has been very good to us of late, giving up a ton of homeruns in his starts. He faces a Braves offense today that hits the long ball very well.
Ynoa has a 3.43 ERA/3.56 FIP on the season so he’s perfectly serviceable. The Padres offense has struggled a bit of late with a 93 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They have a 98 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Pick: Bet Braves First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -118 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.84 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/25 10:29:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | 74 | 76 | 120 | 86 | 86 | 1 | 70 | 2 |
| CLE | 101 | 102 | 93 | 93 | 19 | 85 | 23 | |
| Eli Morgan | 124 | 162 | 94 | 73 | 100 | 14 | 111 | 19 |
| CHW | 97 | 100 | 113 | 109 | 3 | 118 | 6 |
The White Sox offense and their best starter against the Indians offense and one of their worst starters. Easy money.
Eli Morgan has a 5.68 ERA/5.26 FIP on the season. He faces the Sox who have a 107 wRC+ against righties on the year. They have a 118 wRC+ over the past two weeks so they are in good form.
Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -128 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/25 10:29:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | 91 | 88 | 98 | 72 | 93 | 7 | 105 | 14 |
| COL | 98 | 100 | 90 | 82 | 29 | 90 | 21 | |
| Jon Gray | 89 | 84 | 103 | 109 | 105 | 23 | 109 | 17 |
| SFG | 114 | 107 | 106 | 108 | 4 | 130 | 2 |
I like Jon Gray, but this Giants offense at this ballpark is too good to pass up. The Giants have a 110 wRC+ against righties on the season and a 130 wRC+ over the past two weeks. I don’t think that number is coming down tonight.
Anthony DeSclafani draws a nice match-up here as the Rockies have just a 77 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Pick: Bet Giants -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -113 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.88 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/25 10:29:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)
