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Three MLB System tips for tonight’s three games.
A 1-2 record last night.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 81 | 56 | 117 | 131 | 84 | 3 | 95 | 12 |
| CHW | 96 | 100 | 114 | 109 | 3 | 109 | 6 | |
| Carlos Rodon | 65 | 69 | 150 | 79 | 90 | 7 | 82 | 2 |
| HOU | 112 | 85 | 107 | 116 | 1 | 116 | 3 |
The margins on this series have just been razor thin. These two teams match-up really well and they both have outstanding offenses. The line here is basically a coin flip.
The Astros used the day off to upgrade their starter to Lance McCullers Jr. He had a 3.16 ERA/3.52 FIP on the season, but he has a huge walk rate which could lead to trouble against this White Sox offense. He had a great start in game one of this series with no runs allowed in 6.2 innings.
As I said yesterday, Carlos Rodon gives the White Sox a chance to even the series today. He had a 2.37 ERA/2.65 FIP on the season while barely allowing any homeruns or walks. He faced the Astros twice this season, going 14 innings and only allowing one run.
This one could be close, but I like the White Sox in the first five innings. The starter match-up is slightly in their favor and they should be able to hit McCullers this time around.
Pick: Bet White Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/12 12:42:58 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | 93 | 90 | 105 | 94 | 88 | 5 | 105 | 21 |
| ATL | 121 | 108 | 99 | 98 | 12 | 100 | 14 | |
| Charlie Morton | 75 | 63 | 123 | 86 | 101 | 16 | 93 | 9 |
| MIL | 98 | 108 | 105 | 91 | 23 | 98 | 16 |
The Brewers offense just stinks. If I had to do it all over again, I would bet under on every one of the games in this series. Yesterday’s loss was the first time I was legit pissed off at a result in some time.
This team wins by having great starters and then hoping the offense gets a couple runs. So, what do they do? Pinch hit for their great starter in the fourth inning when he’s thrown only 57 pitches. I know that was probably their best chance to score because the offense is so bad, but I knew that the bet was a loss the second that they didn’t score. A three-run homerun a few minutes later proved it.
Anyway, F(orget) the Brewers. They had their chance in this series and now it’s over. They put an average lefty on the mound today in Eric Lauer who I think they can hit. Charlie Morton should shut them down.
Pick: Bet Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: 1.87 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.87 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/12 12:42:58 PM EST but are subject to change.)
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | 87 | 83 | 96 | 70 | 93 | 9 | 85 | 3 |
| LAD | 120 | 101 | 107 | 106 | 7 | 105 | 9 | |
| Walker Buehler | 75 | 67 | 112 | 72 | 81 | 1 | 89 | 6 |
| SFG | 122 | 106 | 106 | 108 | 5 | 109 | 6 |
I have been burned on unders a few times in these playoffs, but I’m going back to that well for the first five innings here.
The Dodgers have been shutout twice in this series and scored nine runs once. Seven of those runs came after the fifth inning. If you throw in the Wild Card game, they have scored three runs total in four games in the first five innings of those games. DeSclafani is solid and the Giants have a quick hook when necessary.
Throw in Walker Buehler who had a 2.47 ERA/3.15 FIP on the season and I think this is likely to be another tight, low scoring game between these two teams.
Pick: Bet Dodgers/Giants First 5 Innings Under 4 Runs
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/12 12:42:58 PM EST but are subject to change.)
