June 16th, 2020 Bundesliga Bets

Yesterday ended up being a 1-1 day for a slight profit due to the odds.

We won with our Augsburg DNB bet as they won 1-0, and lost with Real Sociedad to win as they ended up drawing 1-1.

That was probably a fair result.

For Tuesday, June 16th we have four Bundesliga games to choose from and I’m going to look into all 4 of those and give tips on the two games or bets that I like the most.

Let’s get to it:

Union Berlin vs Paderborn Betting Tips:

A brutal loss for Paderborn which has condemned the to relegation after Werder Bremen thumped them 5-1. No way back for them now and have to wonder if the heads will go down.

Union Berlin aren’t safe from relegation yet however are in a decent enough spot. They struggled post break a bit but managed to pick up a key 1-1 draw against Schalke and then on the weekend got a big 2-1 win over Cologne that has really helped their cause.

Overall stats wise this season both teams struggle to score goals while they concede for fun. Both defenses have let in 13 goals in the 6 games post-break. Both are very low for xG, while Union Berlin actually have a very low xGA meaning they have been a bit unlucky.

This is one of those games that on paper appears to be a low scoring game. They drew 1-1 when they last played. Paderborn I have to think the heads are down and the question is if Union Berlin give them a thumping or not.

I’m going to take the under here as I feel there is just enough value in it. However the more I look at things I do see some reasons against it so it will end up being a very small play.

(Odds on this page are correct as of 2020/06/15 8:43:41 AM EST but are subject to change)

Freiburg vs Hertha Berlin Betting Tips:

These are games I have fun tipping. Freiburg are 2.62 to win, Hertha are 2.55. I like to go into this without any idea who will win, then attempt to pick the correct outcome or go with the bet that I feel will work out.

Hertha Berlin started off great post break but are struggling now with losses to Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt. Freiburg struggled a bit but haven’t been too bad and got a win over Monchengladbach and a point against Wolfsburg which is impressive.

Hertha don’t really have too much to play for while Freiburg are battling for a European spot. The xPTS system actually lists Freiburg as third worst post break suggesting they have been a tad lucky.

Hertha missing Mittelstadt will be a loss and Boyata is out here. Those two factors are big enough for me to back Freiburg.

(Odds on this page are correct as of 2020/06/15 8:43:41 AM EST but are subject to change)