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I am considering this to be Opening Day, part two for the MLB System. I’ve made some upgrades to the System where I factor in implied totals and this has really unlocked things. My testing has been extremely successful and I’m ready to unleash it with a full day of betting tips.
Seven bets for today.
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Reminder: All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
OAK – JP Sears
BAL – Kyle Gibson
The Athletics were set to be the punching bag of baseball and they have very much lived up to that billing thus far. The bullpen has been a mess and they can’t hit at all. Gibson is a very solid pitcher so he should get it done here against an offense with a 65 wRC+ against righties thus far.
Baltimore has crushed lefties for a 151 wRC+ this season. This is one of the favorites of the day and worth laying the runs.
Orioles -1.5 (+105)
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Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
HOU – Framber Valdez
PIT – Roansy Contreras
Valdez has shutdown stuff and the Pirates offense is below average against lefties. This could be a very nice performance from him. The Astros offense hasn’t quite been what you’d expect early, but they should get there.
Astros -0.5 First 5 Innings (-125)
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
BOS – Nick Pivetta
TBR – Josh Fleming
The Rays are so hot right now. Their 9-0 start is the best of the Wild Card era and they have a +57 run differential with 24 homeruns in nine games. Just insane numbers. Why go against them now? Especially with a below-average starter against them. I won’t do it.
The System also likes the over here as the Red Sox have hit lefties very well early.
Rays -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)
Red Sox/Rays Over 8.5 (-117)
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
CIN – Graham Ashcraft
ATL – Bryce Elder
I promise not to just lay runs, but there are some real blowaway lines today that make it worth it. Braves at home should be elite and the Reds are playing over their head right now.
Braves -0.5 (-120)
St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
STL – Steven Matz
COL – German Marquez
The Cardinals at Coors should do very well today. They have a 114 wRC+ against righties thus far this season and Marquez has struggled early. While the Rockies have really struggled against lefties early. This is a borderline -1.5 play, but a good price for the ML.
Cardinals -139
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
WSN – Patrick Corbin
LAA – Jose Suarez
The System’s favorite play of the day is the Angels as they are projected to win by nearly three runs. That’s a ton.
Patrick Corbin is a big part of that. He was projected to be bad this year and has been slightly worse. While the Angels have an early 163 wRC+ against lefties.
The Nationals have hit lefties well and Suarez has struggled, but he’s better than he’s pitched and the Angels bullpen is far more reliable.
Angels -1.5 (-130)
Bet Horse Racing - +£21,565.98 profit on £25/pt staking. Click for more details.
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