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MLB betting tips for September 27th, 2023.
Marlins/Mets ended up being too wet. That will make up today and it still looks good, but it is still a question mark with the weather.
The Angels offense went crazy on the Rangers. A major “Where was that yesterday?” game.
Three bets and a parlay today on Patreon.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
WSN – Patrick Corbin
BAL – Grayson Rodriguez
Corbin is finishing the season in the same way that the last few have gone, roughly. Over his last five starts he has a 7.62 ERA/5.18 FIP. He gets a tough match-up as the Orioles have a 112 wRC+ against lefties.
Rodriguez has been excellent of late with a 1.84 ERA/2.37 FIP. I’m excited to see what he can do in the playoffs. As for today, I think he dominates. The Nationals have been below average all season and are limping to the finish with a 77 wRC+ over the past month and 83 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
I almost put this game in the parlay, but this one is all about the starters.
Orioles -0.5 First 5 Innings (-140)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
PIT – Johan Oviedo
PHI – Ranger Suarez
Oviedo has pitched well of late, but there is a lot of luck baked in. He has a 2.30 ERA/4.36 FIP/5.40 xFIP over his last five starts. A low HR/FB rate, a high walk rate, high left on base percentage, and low BABIP. He’s checking all the boxes of a guy that is ready to blow up. The Phillies offense is good and they have a 112 wRC+ at home this year. Pittsburgh’s bullpen is struggling of late as well.
Suarez is better than average and the Pirates are below average against lefties. The Phillies bullpen has been a strength.
Phillies Moneyline (-135)
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
HOU – Framber Valdez
SEA – Bryce Miller
This is maybe the biggest game of the season for these teams. Lose and you’ll need to be almost perfect down the stretch if you want to make the playoffs. This is a playoff game and I expect that level of tightness to manifest here.
Valdez has pitched well of late with a 3.34 ERA/2.98 FIP over his last five starts and the Mariners offense has really struggled of late.
Miller has been up and down of late, but I like him in this match-up. He’s pitched 12.1 innings against the Astros this season and they are yet to score on him. Some luck in there, but the stuff is there with him.
Astros/Mariners Under 4.5 Runs First 5 Innings (-118)
$10 Moneyline Parlay
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