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MLB Playoff Betting Tips for October 16th, 2023.
Rangers took a 1-0 lead last night. It was an extremely close game with both teams having a lot of opportunities they didn’t cash in, but I think I can say that Montgomery is good now. He hides his curveball extremely well and the way he handled Alvarez was masterful. Now we move on to game two while also beginning the Diamondbacks/Phillies series.
Two bets and four props tonight. Today’s Patreon post is completely free below.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
TEX – Nathan Eovaldi
HOU – Framber Valdez
Eovaldi had an awful second-half coming off injury, but he has been excellent in the playoffs with a 1.32 ERA/1.06 FIP in two starts.
While Valdez was a much better pitcher in the second half, he was hit hard in his one playoff start with high walks.
The Rangers had an excellent game plan yesterday to jump on Verlander early when he struggles the worst. I think they should have a strong plan in place tonight as well to exploit Valdez. This offense is great against lefties and extremely patient. They will score again.
The Astros are a question to me on offense. If Eovaldi pitches like that, it doesn’t really matter who is out there, and we’ve reached the point with the Rangers bullpen we have to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Houston is a slight favorite here, but I think they are vulnerable. The best bet is on the Rangers offense. They are clicking right now, and Valdez is suspect.
Rangers Over 3.5 (-135)
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Rangers/Astros Player Props Bet at 0.25 Units:
Nathan Eovaldi Over 15 Outs (-120): The way he has pitched thus far, and his track record, make him worth betting on. Plus, the Rangers are trying to get every out they can out of their starters to avoid the bullpen as much as possible. Eovaldi also had a 7-inning start against the Rangers back in July, pre-injury.
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-130): I think Eovaldi pitches well, but Altuve has really played well against him in his career. He’s 10/29 with seven extra-base hits and five homers. Batting in the leadoff spot always helps for plays like this.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Series:
How sure am I of this series? I don’t think it’s worth a bet. I think it’s a better bet to take the Phillies to win the World Series.
Arizona is the weakest team left, by far. They were worse on the road, had a 90 wRC+ in the second half, and are only here because of some extremely favorable circumstances. This could easily be the Cubs if they decided to show up in September. Gallen and Kelly are great, but I’m not buying.
Phillies 4-1 +500 would be my series correct score bet here.
Series Pick: Phillies +190 to win the World Series
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
ARI – Zac Gallen
PHI – Zack Wheeler
Gallen is awesome, but Wheeler is better. He also has a much easier match-up.
From August 1st through the end of the season, the Phillies had a 119 wRC+ against righties. Over the same period, the Diamondbacks had just an 86 wRC+ against righties. Philly’s isolated slugging was .229, best in baseball, while the Diamondbacks sat at just .138, 26th in baseball.
Wheeler had a 3.08 ERA/3.56 FIP in the second half. While Gallen had a 4.03 ERA/3.94 FIP over the same period with a 4.42 ERA/4.15 FIP on the road.
Throw in the Phillies much better bullpen and it’s easy to see why the Phillies are so heavily favored here.
It’s not a great value here or anything, but the Phillies are the play. I also like the Phillies over 3.5 runs, but at -140 on a cold night with winds blowing in, I’ll just stick with the moneyline.
Phillies Moneyline (-160)
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Diamondbacks/Phillies Player Props Bet at 0.25 Units:
Zac Gallen Over 15 Outs (-120): I think Philly wins, but I have a hard time imagining them chasing Gallen before five. There aren’t many better options behind him and he didn’t have a sub-five-inning start after May 19th.
Trea Turner 2+ Total Bases from Hits (-108): Turner had a rough first half but really figured it out in the second half and stayed hot into the playoffs. He has a .500/.538/.917 batting line thus far. He had two or more hits in four of six playoff games thus far with homers in back-to-back games.
