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MLB betting tips for April 26th, 2024.
1-1-1 on Wednesday.
PUSH Red Sox/Guardians Under 8 Runs (-122)
W Yankees -1.5 (-110)
L Braves -1.5 (-125)
The ninth inning is the enemy. The Red Sox/Guardians went from under to a push in the ninth inning. The Braves went from a cover to extra innings in the ninth. That is not the first time the Braves have done us like that.
Our MLB record is now at 47-34 after a couple of rough days. Down a bit from our highest of highs last week, but still a great start to the season. Let’s keep building it.
Tonight I will have tips for the NBA Playoffs on Patreon after a 3-0 record last night. Patreon has tips for every game of the NBA Playoffs as well as daily MLB bets.
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All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
OAK – Ross Stripling
BAL – Corbin Burnes
Burnes is the man. He has a 2.76 ERA/3.45 FIP thus far and a fantastic home match-up today. The Athletics have just an 81 wRC+ against righties thus far with a ton of strikeouts and not much power. This is the match-up you want with an ace on the mound.
Stripling has a 5.34 ERA/3.35 FIP thus far and I believe the ERA more than the FIP. He doesn’t strike many out, his walks are up, and the only thing saving him right now is a low HR/FB rate. The way this Orioles offense has been playing thus far, I expect that last number to grow today.
The Orioles have a 124 wRC+ against righties with a .205 isolated slugging, the best in all of baseball.
This is one of the System’s favorite games in a while and I’m surprised to see the -1.5 price so low.
Orioles -1.5 (-118)
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets Betting Tips:
STL – Miles Mikolas
NYM – Jose Butto
Butto probably won’t keep up this early start, but he’s looked great thus far and I love the match-up. He has a 1.65 ERA/2.59 FIP thus far with a huge 11.57 K/9 rate. The bullpen behind him has been doing well with a 2.40 ERA/2.92 FIP over the last two weeks.
The Cardinals offense has been pretty bad to start the year. They have just an 86 wRC+ against righties without a lot of power and average strikeout numbers.
Mikolas is really struggling with a 6.49 ERA/5.00 FIP this season. Low strikeouts and a high HR/9 rate are what we love to see.
The Mets have been about average against righties thus far, but they will see JD Martinez in the lineup for the first time this season. Even if he goes hitless, an average offense is still much better than the Cards right now.
Mets Moneyline (-130)
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Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
CLE – Logan Allen
ATL – Chris Sale
This is close to a -1.5 play, but I’m not sure I trust that. Sale has been solid, but the Guardians have been excellent against lefties thus far and I can see this being closer than expected.
Instead, I’m just going with the Braves offense. They have a 119 wRC+ against lefties this season with a .186 isolated slugging, second in baseball. They’ve also been great at home, great over the last two weeks, and great all month. Maybe they are just great.
Logan Allen is not great. He has a 5.06 ERA/5.50 FIP thus far this season with a big walk rate and a 2.03 HR/9 rate. The Braves should hit him.
Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-133)
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Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
MIN – Bailey Ober
LAA – Patrick Sandoval
The Twins offense has been a letdown thus far, but they’ve been heating up of late and they really hit lefties well. They have a 108 wRC+ against them with good slugging.
Sandoval has struggled early with a 6.75 ERA/3.61 FIP. His stats are a mix of who knows. He has good strikeout numbers, bad walk numbers, unlucky BABIP and left-on-base percentage, and a low HR/FB rate. My take is that he’s better ERA-wise than he has been, but not as good as his FIP would indicate.
Regardless of his results, the bullpen should struggle. They have a 4.78 ERAA/4.68 FIP which is bottom-four in baseball.
Bailey Ober is a bit easier to read. He has a 4.91 ERA/4.07 FIP with a big HR/9 rate. For his career, he has a 1.42 HR/9 rate so he’s always struggled there.
The Angels offense has been about average, but they definitely have power with Trout leading the MLB in homers. They have played better at home this season.
The System has this as a coinflip game, but it looks good as an over bet.
Twins/Angels Over 8 Runs (-118)
