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Alrighty so here is how it will work.
I’ll be here every day providing betting analysis and my own bets for every single game of the Euros. If you were here during the World Cup you’ve already experienced that.
When it comes to other sports such as the NHL, I fully believe I can beat the sportsbooks. I have that confidence that the majority of my bets are mostly the correct ones and yield a positive expectation.
I make no such claim for the Euros. Straight up – if you’re betting every game, you’re not doing it with the idea of it being profitable. You’re not looking for angles. You’re doing it for fun and for entertainment. That’s what I’ll be doing with my write-ups.
My write-ups are honestly for my own benefit; they allow me to think things out, and look at all the angles for bets.
In saying that, I did the same thing for the 2022 World Cup here on Patreon, and went 32-27 for 7.54u profit. I have did it for World Cups and European Championships stretching back an entire decade and been profitable. Despite that, I still want to issue that disclaimer as I don’t want people blindly following my plays.
You’re here for the content. Take in what I say, but feel free to ignore it. These are MY bets – what I am betting purely for my own entertainment.
I’ll also be posting betting tips the day before. Again, that’s not +EV. You may want to wait until the games literally about to start, to see lineups etc. I’ve been surprised before with that sort of thing.
Alright now that’s all outta the way – let’s get on with Scotland vs Germany. I’ll be just doing flat unit tracking for my bets to simplify things although I’ll be sure to let you know how I feel about a bet confidence wise.
Scotland vs Germany Betting Tips:
The greatest nation in the history of the world takes on the hosts, Germany, at 3pm EST on June 14th.
Scotland got here in spectacular fashion with a win over Spain, and lots of other impressive performances and results. Unfortunately, things have went tits up following that. Disappointing results, plus injuries up the arse have really taken the wind out of our sails confidence wise. Those Irn Bru “optimism” ads aged like milk.
Germany being the hosts didn’t have to qualify. We’ve got some friendlies to look at, but those are always so hard to guage.
We’ve seen six games from Germany under Nagelsmann with multiple formations. I’d expect a 4-2-3-1 to at least start this game. It’s what he liked at Munich. They look solid defensively, and are set up well for a possession based attack.
If they played this game immediately after qualifying? I’d say Scotland would be in with a shout. I think Scotlands best chance is to strike early and fast. Germany will want to chill a bit and settle in, so hopefully we can try and surprise them.
Unfortunately, I am backing Germany -1 @ 1.80 odds meaning they need to win by at least 2.
Note that just for ease of calculation I’ll be using decimal betting odds.
Fun long-shot bet: I’ve no idea if I’ll keep this up throughout the tournament, but I’m going to try and work a long shot bet of at least 4.00 odds into each game. This is just for shits and giggles, and chances are I’ll give up on it a few games in after it loses 5 times in a row. So rule is at least 4.00 odds, and I’ll personally bet a 1/4u on it just for fun. For this one, I’m going with over 12 corners at 4.33 odds.
