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I wrapped up the first round of the Euros by going 1-1 for exactly breakeven.
I had Turkey vs Georgia BTTS. That was a nice one as I didn’t have to sweat on it too long. Also what a game that was – one of the better games of the tournament.
I lost out on Portugal -1. They had a ton of possession, created a decent amount of chances, but struggled to get the ball in the net. They racked up an xG of 1.93 for that one but eh – their offense really seemed ineffective to me at times, so I’m not that upset about it. In hindsight, not a pick I am really a fan of.
We start the second round of games now and it’s fun as we’ve got actual data and tactics to deal with so let’s get to it:
Croatia vs Albania Bet:
Croatia started off the Euros in a disappointing manner – with a 3-0 thumping by Spain. Overall they did create more chances and had more possession and racked up a 2.67 xG in that game.
Albania almost shocked the world after scoring in the first minute against Italy. Alas, the Italians came back and won. Albania had 8 shots in that game but 7 off them were off target.
Croatia certainly have to be concerned about the mistakes they made, which Spain were able to capitalize on. I don’t think they’ll do it but if Albania press high on Croatia it would be a smart thing to do.
I have a couple of concerns about Croatia and defensive issues. They NEED a win here so will be pushing up as goal difference could be a big factor too. But Albanias shooting woes against France were disappointing.
Going into this one, I had a lot of faith on Croatia. And everything I have looked at hasn’t changed my mind. Hopefully they have some better luck in front of goal. Croatia -1 @ 2.25 and honestly I won’t be surprised if they do even better.
Germany vs Hungary Bet:
Germany absolutely battered Scotland to open the Euros. It was a superb performance from them and while Scotland are taking a bit of a verbal pounding for that game, you can’t deny just how good the Germans were.
Of course – we don’t know for sure. It could be Scotland were just utter tripe on the night, but Germany did look so organized out there and they had clinical finishing.
Hungary lost to Switzerland 3-1. I didn’t think Hungary were that bad quite honestly. Switzerland just had a lot of good moves, and their defense has obvious issues.
It’s not exactly an inspired bet, but I’m good with Germany -1 at 1.72. Yeah it’s only one game we’ve seen them play, but they absolutely look like a force to be reckoned with. They win here they qualify and thus they can relax for that third game too and rotate the squad a bit so this is a key one for them.
Scotland vs Switzerland Bet:
This is an interesting one because I discuss my picks with a friend who is big into tactical analysis. Sometimes we agree, sometimes we disagree but can see each others perspectives. This isn’t the case here.
He’s 100% convinced this game is going to be a draw. He feels both sides will be happy with the result, Scotland will perform better, and that this will be a very low scoring affair. He even said “draw, draw, draw” to emphasize it.
I disagree.
Yes, I think Scotland will be better. 100%. But I was also extremely impressed with the Swiss performance against Hungary. It’s their movement in the box, the way they create chances etc and I think they’re going to cause problems for a lot of teams. All those movements I believe will rip our defense apart. Of course we’ve stepped up when no-one expected us to before like against England at Euro 2021, but ever since qualifying Scotland has not looked good.
Switzerland to win @ 1.85 odds
