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MLB betting tips for June 21st, 2024.
1-1-1 last time. 138-92 this season.
L Diamondbacks/Nationals Over 9 Runs (-105)
PUSH Twins First 5 Innings Moneyline (-130)
W Cardinals First 5 Innings Moneyline (-110)
I love Fridays when the old series end and the new ones begin. This weekend looks like a great one with a lot of favorable match-ups. As always, I’ll be covering each day on Patreon.
Five bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
ARI – Jordan Montgomery
PHI – Taijuan Walker
I thought about taking the Phillies here, but I’m not sure how much I trust Walker on a hot day.
I do trust the Phillies offense though, especially against lefties where they have a 118 wRC+. Montgomery has struggled with a 7.54 ERA/4.51 FIP over his last five starts. The Diamondbacks bullpen is also in a bad spot right now with a bottom-five FIP over the past thirty days.
Phillies Over 4.5 Runs (-135)
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Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
SEA – George Kirby
MIA – Trevor Rogers
Kirby is one of my favorite pitchers in the game, he’s hot right now, and the Marlins offense is awful. Yes, to all of this.
Kirby has a 2.70 ERA/2.41 FIP over his last five starts. The Marlins have just a 71 wRC+ over the past two weeks. I haven’t done fantasy in a while, but he’d be my top pitcher of the day.
Rogers has a 3.09 ERA/5.46 FIP over his last four starts so he’s been quite lucky with a low BABIP and high left-on-base percentage. He doesn’t strike many out and walks a lot.
Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings (-120)
Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
BOS – Kutter Crawford
CIN – Andrew Abbott
I love this park for hitting and this will be one of the hottest games of the year so far. There will be hitting.
Crawford over the last five starts has a 6.35 ERA/5.22 FIP with a big 2.22 HR/9 rate. Abbot has had similar struggles with a 5.32 ERA/5.32 FIP over his last four starts with big walks and a 1.64 HR/9 rate.
The Reds offense has been down a bit, but this weather should help quit a bit. The Red Sox are hot right now with a 121 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Red Sox/Reds Over 9.5 Runs (+104)
Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
BAL – Grayson Rodriguez
HOU – Jake Bloss
One of the hottest hitting teams against a rookie making his debut. I don’t see that going well for young Bloss.
The Orioles are on fire right now with a 138 wRC+ over their last two weeks. They hit righties well and they have a ton of power. Bloss is being rushed a bit and I have him projected at a 4.59 FIP with the potential to struggle with walks.
Grayson has been pitching well with a 3.20 ERA/3.36 FIP this year. The Astros offense is dangerous but has been down a bit lately with a 94 wRC+ over the past month.
Orioles -0.5 First 5 Innings (-112)
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
LAA – Patrick Sandoval
LAD – Landon Knack
It’s been a while since I’ve felt there was a true -1.5 game, but this one checks all the boxes.
The Dodgers hit lefties well, are hot right now, and play well at home. Sandoval has a big ERA/FIP discrepancy on the season, but over his last five starts, he’s just been plain bad with a 6.49 ERA/5.27 FIP. The bullpen behind him is one of the worst in baseball.
Knack has had a solid four starts this year with a 2.61 ERA/4.64 FIP. The match-up is the thing as the Angels have just a 92 wRC+ against righties.
Dodgers -1.5 (+104)
