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MLB betting tips for July 12th, 2024.
2-1 last time on Patreon. 170-115 this season.
L Cubs/Orioles Over 8.5 Runs (-118)
W Red Sox -1.5 (-113)
W Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings (-120)
The Cubs scored eight and the Orioles scored none. That hurt. Thankfully, the other two were easy blowout wins.
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Four bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Oakland Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
OAK – Hogan Harris
PHI – Ranger Suarez
This feels kind of chalky, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a good pitch.
Suarez has been excellent at home this season with a 2.49 ERA/3.07 FIP. The Athletics have been good against lefties, but their home/road splits are pretty dire. On the road this season, they have only an 84 wRC+. The bullpen behind him is one of the best out there.
Harris is hittable. Over his last five starts, he has a 4.07 ERA/5.14 FIP. The Phillies are great at home, strong against lefties, and in good form right now.
Phillies -1.5 (-138)
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Colorado Rockies at New York Mets Betting Tips:
COL – Tanner Gordon
NYM – Sean Manaea
Manaea isn’t really exciting, but he gets results and the Rockies stink against lefties and are weak on the road.
The Mets offense has been good at home and is really playing well right now. They have a 108 wRC+ against righties and a very juicy match-up.
Gordon has made one start and didn’t look great. The projections have him with an FIP that starts with 5 so he is nothing to get excited about. Low strikeouts and big home runs should be the story of him today. Then the bullpen that comes in behind him is one of the worst in baseball.
Mets -1.5 (-111)
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
TEX – Andrew Heaney
HOU – Hunter Brown
Eight runs for a Rangers/Astros match-up feels like a mistake. They’ve scored at least nine in six out of their seven match-ups this season and I see no reason that doesn’t continue.
Heaney is on a good run right now, but the Astros hit lefties well and have posted a 124 wRC+ at home.
Brown is a similar deal as he’s in the best run of his season right now, but the Rangers are heating up in a major way right now with a 130 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Both bullpens are good, but not untouchable.
If this was 9 or even 8.5 I would probably stay away. At this number, basically an average scoring game, it’s worth a bet.
Rangers/Astros Over 8 Runs (-112)
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Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
CHC – Kyle Hendricks
STL – Sonny Gray
Hendricks is a pitcher that I don’t feel like I target enough. There have been some good results of late, but I find him to be very hittable with a profile that often leads to bad things. He has an 8.55 ERA/7.00 FIP on the road this season.
The Cardinals hit righties well, hit better at home, and have been hot over the past month.
I was almost going to go with just the Cardinals run total, but Gray is just too hot to pass up. In St. Louis this season, he has a 1.90 ERA/1.92 FIP. The Cubs surprised us all against the Orioles this week, but their luck is about to run out.
Cardinals -0.5 First 5 Innings (-120)
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