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In this article, we’re going to discuss who will be the Top Goalscorer in the World Cup 2014 in Brazil.
This is not to be confused with Top TEAM Goalscorer. If anything – this is a crapshoot honestly, as there are just so many factors. However Top Team Goalscorer is where there is a lot of value as you are betting by team, and we have an article up going through all of that.
For the top goalscorer of the World Cup – while it’s tough, and a crap shoot – it’s actually quite fun trying to determine who it is.
For example looking back at the past 5 World Cups, the Top Goalscorer has came from a team who reached the semi-finals every time. There was one slight exception with Oleg Salenko in 1994 who had 6 in 3 group games, but he tied there with Hristo Stoichkov who got 6 goals….and Bulgaria made the semi-finals.
So when determining who the top goalscorer is going to be, you have to look at the teams who we believe will make the semi-finals of the World Cup. That will at least help us narrow it down as we look at the odds.
The teams we feel most likely to make the World Cup are Brazil, Italy, Spain, Germany, Argentina and Portugal.
Also based on running the statistics for the previous World Cups, we have determined that we should be looking for a top goalscorer who during his domestic season, scored 15+ goals and we are NOT including penalty takers for the national teams.
The reason for that – even though it removes the likes of Ronaldo and Messi from our predictions based on these calculations – is that penalties are rarely a factor when it comes to the World Cup, and who the top goalscorer is. Yet the odds for the penalty takers are higher, and become -EV. There is just no value on betting a penalty taker.
We’ve narrowed it down to one player who we feel can be top goalscorer. Their betting odds represent them well, and they have a very good chance of being the top scorer. At least – better than their odds dictate by a long shot.
Ciro Immobile of Italy.
Italy have a high percentage of headed goals and that’s where Immobile comes into play. He is 66/1 which is really bad odds for him – and we like him to be a lot higher than that when it comes to the goals. He will be there, or thereabouts for top goalscorer we expect.
Like we said – Top Goalscorer really is a crapshoot. You can have one player score a ton in the group stages and then nothing else – but we’re looking for consistency, a team who will make at least the semi-finals, and we have to like Immobile. Balotelli is the favourite for Italy but Immobile just works out that much better, and absolutely killed it in Serie A this season.
If you must bet Top Goalscorer, back Immobile
