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The summer is here and with the summer comes heat and with heat comes baseballs flying out of ballparks. Over the past week we have seen some serious runs put up last night with pitchers struggling to fight the heat and hitters padding their stats. Last night alone saw Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs sock five homeruns in a win against the Reds, the Nationals score 11 runs and the Rays score 13. Totals going over went 8-2-1 last night and that trend should continue over the next few weeks as ballparks get hotter and hotter. This is a trend we’ll be keeping a close eye on over the next few weeks and hope to capitalize on.
There are some great opportunities tonight as well as the Cubs continue their series against the Cincinnati Reds in the homer-happy Great American Ballpark, the red hot Rangers take on CC Sabathia and the Yankees, the Pirates head to Seattle and the Astros continue their climb back towards the playoffs against the Angels. It’s a full slate tonight and it should be a good one.
MLB Betting Tips:
Even with Jon Lester on the mound for the Cubs tonight, I think tonight’s Cubs/Reds game is going to be a high scoring one. The Reds were able to put up some big numbers against the Cy Young award winner Jake Arrieta and I can see them doing so again tonight. Their slugging percentage against lefties is right in line with their overall slugging and their home numbers are much better as well. Of course, I think the Cubs will score too with John Lamb on the mound. I like the ball to fly and this one to go over 8.5 runs.
CC Sabathia’s numbers with the Yankees have been vintage numbers from him, but hidden in the numbers is a pitcher getting extremely lucky and just waiting to get rocked. We saw some regression last time out and I could see even more tonight. The Rangers hit lefties far better than they hit righties and this one could get ugly for the Yankees. Cole Hamels goes for Texas and I expect him to get a win tonight. Rangers -119.
The Red Sox pitching is a mess right now. In their past six games they’ve allowed 8, 7, 7, 10, 6 and 13 runs. Yet somehow the total on this game is just eight runs. I know that the past doesn’t equal the present, but with the struggling Rick Porcello who has given up 8 hits in each of his past two starts and a seriously taxed bullpen I don’t love the under chances. Chris Archer goes for the Rays and with his 4.70 ERA I expect him to have some trouble with the best offense in baseball. This one is definitely going over 8 runs.
Interesting splits from tonight’s Mariners game:
Hisashi Iwakuma home ERA: 5.17
Jon Niese road ERA: 5.03
With the Mariners powerful offense, the Pirates collection of hitters and these two pitchers, I really like the over chances on this one as well. Safeco Field is a tough place for hitters, but that hasn’t mattered thus far this season and I don’t expect it to matter tonight. Over 8 runs.
