Follow @SBTSportBetting [Get Exclusive Tips on our Patreon, Ad-Free]
The Midsummer Classic is here and perhaps more importantly the long awaited break for baseball players is here. Teams that are beat up or have overworked their bullpens, get some long awaited rest. Teams get a chance to look at the landscape, look at their own teams and the teams around them and decide if they want to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. Tonight’s game is mostly an exhibition, but it does decide who gets home field advantage in the World Series so there is definitely stakes. Whether the managers treat it as such is another question all together.
We’ll also take a look at the futures betting for the second half and see if we can find some value in the lines. There are some good races in baseball and some teams that have severely over or underperformed over the first half of the season and we can reasonably expect different results in the second half. We’ll be concentrating on Pythagorean records which take the team’s runs scored and runs allowed and figure out what a team’s record “should” be.
MLB Futures Betting Tips:
The AL West is a great place for potential value. The Texas Rangers had an extremely good, extremely lucky first half of the season. They’ve extremely outplayed their Pythagorean record and the question becomes whether they have “banked” enough wins so to speak to hold on as things even out. (If they even out.) The standings currently sit like this:
Texas Rangers 54-35
Houston Astros 47-41
Seattle Mariners 44-44
But if you look at Pythagorean record things should look much differently:
Seattle Mariners 49-39
Houston Astros 47-41
Texas Rangers 46-43
We loved the Mariners in the preseason and are expecting a big second half, but a 9.5 game deficit in the standings seems a bit insurmountable. Their best bet is probably the Wild Card at this point and that seems like a stretch. They’ve been hit hard by injuries and it’d be a pretty huge story for them to jump both of these teams.
The bet here seems to be the Astros. They are 6.5 games back, which is big, but if you take away their awful 7-17 April they have been playing at a .625 winning percentage this season. The pitching has much improved and if prospect AJ Reed starts hitting at first base they will fill a big hole in their lineup. I also like this team to make a trade to improve in the second half and I feel like they could steal this division. Bet a half unit on the Astros +375 to win the division.
My other favorite division is the AL West which also features a team with a 6.5 game lead. The San Francisco Giants have the best record in baseball in the first half and have outplayed their Pythagorean by about four games. Which is right in line with what a really good team would do. The Dodgers, however, are the Dodgers. Highest payroll in baseball and they have had a lot of trouble with injuries. They’ve also seen their offense struggle a bit in the first half, but if you go by Pythagorean record only one game separates these two teams. This is a big mountain to climb, but it feels like everything has gone right for the Giants in the first half and nothing has gone right with the Dodgers in the first half. That should even out a bit in the second half and I just have a feeling either Cueto or Samardzija will take a step back. Put a half unit on the Dodgers +400 to win the NL West.
Our final division pick is the AL East that is absolutely wide open right now. Bookmakers have the Orioles, Red Sox and Blue Jays all at +170 despite the Orioles having a two game lead in the standings. The reason is pitching. The Orioles and Red Sox have terrible pitching and the Blue Jays do not. The Jays offense has been becoming the scary juggernaut we all expected them to be in the preseason and I expect them to take over this division in the second half just like they did last year. Full unit, Jays +170.
MLB All-Star Game Betting Tip:
Strictly on paper, the American League roster looks much better than the National League. The reigning MVP of the league Josh Donaldson and the current homerun leader Mark Trumbo are coming off the bench for the AL while the National League squad is starting Marcel Ozuna and Addison Russell. Nothing against either player, they are both very good, but they are no the top of the game. I’m going with the American League +108 in this one.
