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So we move onto day three of the BDO World Championship from the Lakeside, and we’re still waiting on our first big shock of the year. We almost got a bit of an upset as Ryan Joyce had chances against Martin Adams, but experience came through in the end and Wolfie lives to fight another day against the winner of tonight’s match between Brian Dawson and Jeff Smith. Another double-header of action split between Channel 4 and BT Sport, with the afternoon session starting at 1pm and the evening session on BT Sport starting at 7pm.
David Cameron vs Jimmy Hendriks
If I could have a wager on the amount of crap jokes and puns are going to be made during this game, I’d take the overs every day of the week. That might be the height of the excitement of this prelim match. David Cameron lost 3-0 to Ted Hankey last year, averaging just over 85, which was his best average in his three defeats at the Lakeside. He’s improved every year and in 2016, he cleaned up on the Canadian circuit to earn his place back at the Lakeside. Jimmy Hendriks has won on at the Lakeside, making the last 16 on 2013, beating Martin Adams 302 with an average of 78.78. Hendriks has then gone on to ply the PDC Development Tour, achieving a modicum of success, but he won the Antwerp Open this year, which has been the highlight of 2016.
This looks tight, to me, as both men have experience, and I think we have to take the value on the outsider here, as I can’t split them and I’d have them both 10/11. So, back the outsider of the pair, David Cameron to win in what should be a tight one.
Craig Caldwell vs Dennis Harbourr
The day’s second prelim game sees last year’s quarter-finalist Dennis Harbour take on a tough opponent in the shame of Craig Caldwell, who impressed last year, winning his prelim before losing to Scott Mitchell 3-2, in a game he could have won. Harbour hasn’t played many events his year, and most of the events he has played, he’s not made too much of an impression, with his best result a run to the final of the England National Championships, which he lost 6-0 to Gary Robson. As for Caldwell, he’s done the business on the other side of the world yet again, but like last year, this is a big step up.
I was seriously impressed by Craig Caldwell last year, and he should have got over the line against Scott Mitchell. The Kiwi banged in 13 180s in his two games, and if he can replicate that, he should have more than enough to get past Harbour, who seemed to grind his opponents into submission last year. As long as Harbour doesn’t get into his head, Craig Caldwell to win is superb value here.
Dean Reynolds vs Pip Blackwell
Two of the BDO’s bigger names face of in the afternoon’s final game, and Dean Reynolds leads the head-to-head 2-0. Reynolds is one of the market leaders to take this title and for one reason – his dominance on the PDC Development Tour and his win at the England Classic, s well as a 9-darter in the England Masters. Pip Blackwell, on the other hand has struggled this year and his best result is a semi-final at the European Darts Open.
Everything here points to a Dean Reynolds win, but he did disappoint last year, losing 3-0 to Glen Durrant and averaging 81.63. To be fair, Blackwell lost 3-0 to Martin Atkins with an average of 80.88 that same year. He also lost 3-1 to Ross Montgomery in 2015, so the Lakeside hasn’t been too kind to him. But I think Reynolds’ game has improved while Blackwell’s has regressed quite a bit, so take Dean Reynolds -1.5 sets.
Martin Phillips vs Paul Hogan
Two-time semi-finalist Martin Phillips won’t be pleased with this draw after a mixed year, with the highlight being a win at the Turkish Open, but with a lot of early exists mixed in, too. However, he got out of his group in the Zuideruin Masters, which is a plus, so he isn’t in terrible form coming into this. However, Paul Hogan looked in good nick on Sunday afternoon and his 150 finish was a thing of beauty. He should have his eye in, which should be enough to see off Martin Phillips, who has been poor in his last two outings at the Lakeside and I don’t think he deserves the tag of favourite for this. I see huge value in backing Paul Hogan to win in this one.
Geert de Vos vs Raymond Smith
While Hogan will have his eye in, which will help, I don’t think it’s going to be too much help for Raymond Smith, who came through his prelim in a real fight. Smith didn’t exactly impress, but he showed real fight, and it’s a shame he’s drawn an in-form Geert de Vos, who reached the semi-finals at Zuideruin in December, and won the Open Zeeland and the French Open in August. I can’t see the Belgian being troubled and I can’t see a line on this one, as the bookies have it right, so it’s no bet for me on this one.
Brian Dawson vs Jeff Smith
Jeff Smith can think himself fortunate to be in the first round, after a sloppy performance in his prelim game, even if his average suggest it wasn’t too bad at all. Still, for last year’s finalist, he’ll be happy to get that tricky tie out of the way and face Brian Dawson. They faced each other in the last 16 last year and Jeff Smith won 4-1 with an average of 91.83. Dawson has had a mixed bag of a season, as there’s been a few quarter-finals and semi-finals, but nothing really of note. Still, he’s capable and Smith will need to be on his game to win this one.
I think looking back to last year and even Smith’s first prelim game this year, the Canadian has too much for Dawson, probably around 5-8 points on the averages, which might just be telling. I also think Smith won’t be wasteful on his doubles, which should help make our bet of Jeff Smith -1.5 sets a profitable one.
I’ll be back with more free tips for day four of the 2017 BDO World Championship tomorrow, so I’ll see you then.
