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A 1-2 record last night.
I really thought the Astros were going to pull that one out to give us the winning night. At the end of five they had a 3-1 lead and Verlander was cooking. He ended up giving up one in the sixth before Will Harris took over and gave up another three. A rare mistep for the Astros bullpen who are first in FIP on the year and the Red Sox ended up winning the game. Maybe I should’ve done a F5 bet here, maybe it was just bad luck.
The win was the one that I felt the least positive about as the Tigers beat the Jays. That’s about always how it works, eh? I had my doubts early, but this one was tied late and I tend to favor the home team in those situations.
Kind of like in our other loss, the Athletics dropping one to the Royals. The Royals jumped out to a lead, but the Athletics crawled back to tie it up 4-4 late. The home team ended up taking it on a Jorge Soler homerun and that was all she wrote.
Not the best start to the month, but no need for alarm. There are some nice games today so let’s get in some winners.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Betting Tips:
I’m a fan of Domingo German here. While his ERA isn’t pretty, his underlying numbers reek of a guy due for some regression. He is sitting at a 5.45 ERA/4.56 FIP/3.67 xFIP on the year with some huge strikeout numbers. He faces off against a bad Orioles offense that has just a .676 OPS on the year against righties. This is a nice match-up.
I’m always looking for an excuse to pick the Yankees and Alex Cobb is a great reason to do just that. He has a 6.80 ERA/5.41 FIP/4.67 xFIP on the year with an ugly 1.75 HR/9. The best homerun hitting team and most dangerous offense in the league is not a good match-up for him. Lay the runs.
Bet Yankees -1.5 at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Betting Tips:
Jon Lester is on the mound for the Cubs today and I’m not too worried about any regression coming from his 2.71 ERA/4.30 FIP. Why? He faces the Mets who are dead last in baseball against left handed pitchers.
Meanwhile, he’ll face Steven Matz who I do see some negative regression coming for. The Cubs have a .795 OPS against lefties, top five in baseball, and Matz has a 3.55 ERA/5.60 FIP on the year. This could get ugly. Lay the runs.
Bet Cubs -1.5 at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
I’m certainly not betting on the offenses here, but for the first time this year I am going to pick the Padres. Tyson Ross has had a great bounceback year with a 3.29 ERA/3.27 FIP on the year and the Padres home park is one of the best for pitchers in the game. The Reds have just a .691 OPS against righties on the season so I can see him having a great day.
He’ll go against Luis Castillo who has had an up and down year with a 5.49 ERA/4.87 OPS. His walks are too high and his homerun rate is too high. The Padres offense isn’t much to get excited about, but Castillo is always worse on the road than at home. The moneyline is near even money so I am taking this one.
Bet Padres -110 at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]
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