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A 1-1 record yesterday.
I was able to make it home before noon and posted some tips. Unfortunately, I forgot to update the email settings and the tips didn’t go out in time. I also posted a couple of tips on twitter, but those went 1-1 as well. So, not like you all missed much.
We nearly had the 2-0, but the Angels just kept chipping away at the Dodgers lead while the Dodgers were never able to add to it. This sweet Shohei Ohtani homerun settled it.
“He hit that ball to Tokyo,” really? Really announcer guy? That’s the best you can do?
Today has a lot of games that the system likes one way or another, but the lines don’t match up for one way or another. It really likes the under on both games of the Yankees/Orioles double header as they are way too high, but that feels like a lock to split so I’ll just be skipping them.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
I don’t usually go for pitchers coming off the DL, but it’s hard not to like Chris Archer in this match-up. He has just a 4.24 ERA/3.80 FIP on the year, but we know the strikeout stuff is there and we know he performs much better at home. Over the last three seasons his FIP is about 1.4 runs less in Tampa. He faces a Tigers offense that is horrible against righties, a .670 OPS/81 wRC+ and they just seem to keep sinking.
The Rays have been playing good baseball of late and today face Francisco Liriano. The Rays have hit lefties well with a .720 OPS/102 wRC+ on the year. Liriano has a 4.03 ERA/5.27 FIP on the year and things could get bad start swinging towards that FIP soon. I don’t think I’ve done this all season, but tonight I am laying the runs with the Rays. Even with Clayton Kershaw, the Yankees against the Orioles and Red Sox against the Rangers; this is the system’s most lopsided match-up of the day.
Bet Rays -1.5 (-115) at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
At first I wasn’t completely sold on this one, but then I took a deeper look at Jose Urena’s gamelog. Check out his last ten starts:
| Date | Team | Opp | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| 2018-07-04 | MIA | TBR | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2018-06-20 | MIA | @SFG | 5.2 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 2018-06-15 | MIA | @BAL | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2018-06-10 | MIA | SDP | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 2018-06-05 | MIA | @STL | 5 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2018-05-30 | MIA | @SDP | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 2018-05-25 | MIA | WSN | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 2018-05-19 | MIA | @ATL | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 2018-05-13 | MIA | ATL | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 2018-05-08 | MIA | @CHC | 5.1 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Take away that eight inning start against the Orioles (one of the worst hitting teams in the league), a road start against the Padres (one of the worst offenses in a very pitcher friendly park) and a home start against the Rays (a good, but not great offense) and he doesn’t look so hot. Decent offenses hit him. I think the Brewers are a pretty decent offense.
Chase Anderson was a worry for me as well, but he’s actually been a far better pitcher on the road this year. Hitters are hitting .179/.265/.259 on the road against him this season with only 3 homeruns, compare that to the 14 he’s allowed at home and he’s probably happy to be pitching in this pitcher friendly park in Miami. The Marlins have been crawling to respectability on the hitting side, but still have just a.694 OPS on the year against righties. I like the Brewers a lot in this one.
Bet Brewers -135 at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]
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