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A 1-1 record that I can’t even be mad about.
We had the Rays and they were up 8-2 heading into the ninth. Easy win, right? Heading into the inning, Fangraphs gave them just a 0.4% win expectancy. Well, the Jays came back and won. They scored seven runs in the bottom of the ninth with three homeruns hit, including the game winner by Justin Smoak. I’m not even mad, that’s amazing.
The Reds managed to grab the 4-2 win to keep us with the even record for the evening.
Friday is here and that means a full slate of games. There are three that the system likes tonight so let’s jump right into it.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
A match-up of two cold offenses in Chicago, fitting.
Reynaldo Lopez has been impressing me lately. He’s improved his strikeout rate and lowered his walks for two straight months and looks to be putting it all together. Since the beginning of August he has a 2.85 ERA/3.43 FIP. He’s turning into a pretty solid pitcher and the Cubs, who have just a 59 wRC+ over the past two weeks could be in for another rough one.
He goes against Jose Quintana who I think will do well in his old park. The White Sox offense has just a 78 wRC+ over the past two weeks while the Sox haven’t done well against lefties all season. This feels like an under to me.
Bet White Sox/Cubs Under 9 Runs
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
I know that the meme of the 2018 MLB season is that the Mets don’t score when Jacob deGrom starts and that has most definitely been true. The guy has been the very best pitcher in baseball, but he has a 8-9 win/loss record. That is ridiculously low support and something that should not be happening when someone is having a historic season like deGrom is having right now. He has a 1.78 ERA/2.05 FIP on the year and while the wins haven’t been there, I can’t go against him here.
Joe Ross goes for the Nationals and I can’t believe the books are giving him this much respect. He’s made one start all year and he didn’t have a single strikeout in five innings. Before that, he only managed 26 innings all season. He had a rough season last year and I’m just not sure why the Mets are a huge dog here. I know what the story has been, but I like the way the Mets have played of late and I really like deGrom in this match-up.
Bet Mets -145
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
Going back to the well on the Reds here as I really like Luis Castillo tonight. In his last four starts he has a 1.46 ERA/3.88 FIP and tonight he faces one of the weakest offenses in the game.
The Mets will send Wei-Yin Chen to the mound and while he’s been better at home, he’s still not very good with a 4.93 ERA/4.60 FIP. The Reds have hit lefties well all season and I think they will hit Chen well tonight.
Bet Reds -143
