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The second game in Group E us on June 13th between Belgium and Italy, and it takes place at the beautiful Parc Olympique Lyonnsais in Lyon. This game is between the two bookies’ favourites to win Group E, and it looks like it could be a close on on paper, even though both sides have had differing fortunes when it comes to FIFA’s world rankings over the last couple of years.
Belgium qualified for Euro 2016 after comfortably winning Group B with 23 points from Wales and Bosnia and Herzegovina, winning 7 games, drawing 2 and losing 1. That 1 games was a loss to Wales away. Belgium scored 24 goals in qualifying, conceding 5. 10 of those goals came against Andorra, 6 against Cyprus, so they weren’t as prolific against the better quality opposition, but it was still a dominant performance from the Belgians, especially with such a strong defence. Belgium have a glut of forwards to choose from, but Eden Hazard is going to be the core of the front line, with Romelu Lukaku proving his foil.
Italy were the biggest surprise package of Euro 2016 qualifying. Sure, it was Italy, but they have been in a little bit of a decline for a while, and the fact they did not lose a game in qualifying sums up just how well their qualification went. 7 wins, 3 draw and 0 defeats is a huge compliment to how strong Italy were. Sure, they only scored 16, but they also only conceded 7 in 10 games. It’s a typically Italian performance. In fact, the only time they Italians scored more than 2 goals in a game during qualification for Euro 2016 was in their 3-1 win away to Azerbaijan. The Italians have a seriously inexperienced front line, with Pelle and Immobile being their most capped forwards, with 12 caps each and 6 goals between them. Zaza, Eder and Insigne have 5 goals between them in 29 starts. It might just be down to the more experienced Daniele De Rossi with his 102 caps to drag the Italians though kicking and screaming.
Belgium have faced Italy 21 times since 1913, with Italy, as you would expect, having the upper-hand, having won 13, with 4 draws and 4 wins for Belgium in the book. The last two meetings between the sides were both friendlies, with Belgium winning the last game in November 2015 3-1. The meeting before that was a 3-1 win for Italy. In both matches, the home side came out victorious.
Belgium vs Italy Match Betting Odds:
Belgium: 2.5, 6/4, +150
Italy: 3.0, 2/1, +200
Draw: 3.0, 2/1, +200
Belgium vs Italy Match Betting Tips:
This is going to be a tight one, neither side concede many goals, and there’s no an out-and-out goal-scorer for both side, either. Both teams also know that a draw might just be good enough here, given that they’ll both fancy their chances against Ireland and Sweden, which would be enough to qualify from the group. Belgium and Italy to draw is the small stakes play here. It’s a tough one to call, but the draw really makes the most sense here.
Belgium vs Italy Prop Bets:
It’s not the biggest price in the world, but under 2.5 goals is the most sensible prop bet in the world for this game. It’s Italy, for a start, and they never, ever ship lots of goals, unless it’s exceptional circumstances. When you add in Belgium’s lack of a true goal-poacher, there’s no reason why there should be a lot of goals. Under 2.5 goals is the obviously and only play here. If it’s a blowout, fair enough, but all the stats and signs post to a low-scoring affair.
