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(In June 27th, we have possibly the tastiest fixture of the knockout stages, as old enemies Italy and Spain face-off at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis. When the fixtures were coming through for the knockout stages, all eyes turned to this fixture, as many would have thought it was going to be Croatia taking on the Italians, but that late Croatia goal gave us this fixture instead.
Italy started off Euro 2016 in spectacular fashion, beating Belgium 2-0 in a comfortable win in their opening Group E fixture, which set out their intention of playing attractive attacking football. However, the wheels almost came off against Sweden, and they left it late to scrape a 1-0 win. Italy then finished Group E with a defeat, losing 1-0 to Ireland in what was a relatively poor performance from a second-string side. Defence has, as expected, been a key part to Italy’s Group E success, as they topped the group with 6 points, having conceded 1 goal, scoring 3. They topped Group E thanks to their head-to-head result over second-placed Belgium. Italy’s three goals have come from three different players: Giaccherini, Pelle and Eder.
Spain finished Group D in second place, finishing behind Croatia, having accrued 6 points. Spain started off by beating the Czech Republic 1-0. It was a tough game to watch, as Spain struggled to break down the dogged Czech defence. Their second game against Turkey was far more comfortable, winning 3-0 and looking a cut above. However, things went awry, as all they needed was a draw to top Group D, but instead lost 2-1 to Croatia, having gone 1-0 up after 7 minutes. Spain have conceded 2 goals, both against Croatia, and they have scored 5, with 3 coming from top goalscorer Alvaro Morata.
Spain and Italy have faced each other 30 times, with Spain having the upper-hand with 11 wins. Italy had managed 8 wins since their first meeting in 1924, while there have been 11 draws. Their last meeting was in a friendly this year, which finished 1-1. Their last competitive fixture was in the 2013 Confederations Cup, which finished 0-0. Italy have not beat Spain since 2011, which was a friendly victory.
Italy vs Spain Match Betting Odds:
Italy: 4.33, 100/30, +333
Spain: 2.15, 23/20, +114
Draw: 3.0, 2/1, +200
Italy vs Spain Match Betting Tips:
If you had asked me who would be dark horses of Euro 2016 after the first round of games, Italy would have been top of that list. They took Belgium apart with real skill, playing the ball out from the back and just doing the business. However, they were absolutely terrible against Sweden, in the worst match of the tournament so far, and then they lost to Ireland. So it’s hard to work Italy out. However, I think after watching them against Sweden, the Belgium result flattered them. That being said, Spain struggle to break down tight defences, as their game against the Czech Republic showed.
The attacking flair of Spain looks like it’ll be cancelled out by Italy here, and looking at their last match, too, Italy and Spain to draw is the sensible selection here. Is it novel? No. But I think Spain struggled against an average defence, while Italy showed nothing up front after their first game.
Italy vs Spain Prop Bets:
Do I need to write this out for you? Under 2.5 goals is the way to go here. All three of Italy’s games were under 2.5 goals, and it’s all down to their defence. Spain aren’t going to go battering shots at Buffon, they’ll be patient and trying to outfox the Italians, so it’s going to be a real game of chess. Also, 4 out of their last 5 meetings were under 2.5 goals, so all signs point to a low-scoring affair.
If you’re also looking for a bit better value, Draw H/T – Draw F/T is a value option here.
