Follow @SBTSportBetting [Get Exclusive Tips on our Patreon, Ad-Free]
The 2020 MLB season is going to be weird. If last season stopped after 60 games then the Phillies, Cubs, and Rangers would’ve all been playoff teams. The World Series champion Washington Nationals would not have made the playoffs.
Of course, that would be the April-June MLB version of 60 games. That’s not what this is. This will be the July-September version of a 60 game MLB season. That is typically a time when it is hot out and the ball flies. Offenses always pop during the summer months and that’s exactly what we are likely to see here. I looked at the MLB records from July 12th to September 16th of last year. Most teams had played around 60 games here and the playoff teams in this scenario would’ve been the Astros, Yankees, Athletics, Indians, and Rays in the American League and the Cardinals, Braves, Mets, Dodgers, and Cubs on the National League.
Again, no World Series champion. A turnover of four playoff teams.
So we need to be extra careful here. We are going to be looking at teams that outplay or underplay their ZiPS projection and teams with a favorable/unfavorable strength of schedule. It’s not going to be pretty and luck is going to play a big factor in this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Win total: 31
Fangraphs Projection: 30
Strength of Schedule: 0.503
This is the kind of team that could luck their way into a playoff spot with a hot run. They play in a good offensive ballpark and could see a spark from that, but I just don’t see it.
Atlanta Braves
Win total: 34
Fangraphs Projection: 34
Strength of Schedule:: 0.501
Baltimore Orioles
Win total: 21.5
Fangraphs Projection: 19
Strength of Schedule: 0.525
Our first bet on the board with the Orioles going under. They are projected to have the worst pitching team in all of baseball and a bottom-tier offense. They also play in the toughest division in baseball and are projected to have the toughest schedule in the entire league. I don’t think they’ll go winless, but it’s on the board.
Boston Red Sox
Win total: 31.5
Fangraphs Projection:
30 Strength of Schedule: 0.499
If the world was fair, this team would miss the playoffs thanks to trading Mookie Betts. I’m not sure the world is fair, but I think that is exactly what is going to happen here. They aren’t really a team that looks amazing on offense or pitching, and .500 feels about right for them.
Chicago Cubs
Win total: 32
Fangraphs Projection: 32
Strength of Schedule: 0.489
The NL Central is going to be a blood bath. The Cubs, Cards, Brewers, and Reds are pretty evenly matched. The Cubs look to be the worst pitching team of them all.
Chicago White Sox
Win total: 31.5
Fangraphs Projection: 31
Strength of Schedule: 0.487
I am *thisclose* to going over on this one, but I think I’ll just leave it be. Too many questions on the pitching side.
Cincinnati Reds
Win total: 31.5
Fangraphs Projection: 31
Strength of Schedule: 0.493
I want to go over on this one and even picked this team to as a World Series sleeper, but as I said before the NL Central is going to be a bloodbath.
Cleveland Indians
Win total: 32
Fangraphs Projection: 34
Strength of Schedule: 0.481
The Indians look like a playoff team to me and they have the second easiest schedule projected. They just missed the playoffs last year and are typically a good team in the summer months.
Colorado Rockies
Win total: 27.5
Fangraphs Projection: 26
Strength of Schedule: 0.513
I could see this team winning 40 games. I could see them winning 10. Nope.
Detroit Tigers
Win total: 21.5
Fangraphs Projection: 23
Strength of Schedule: 0.506
The Tigers have no reason to be good this year with most of their prospects still a bit away. They look like one of the worst offenses in the AL with one of the hardest schedules in baseball. I would say under here, but this number has been set so low that I can’t do it.
Houston Astros
Win total: 35
Fangraphs Projection: 36
Strength of Schedule: 0.484
The Astros are going to be good again, much to the chagrin of everyone who hates cheating.
Kansas City Royals
Win total: 24.5
Fangraphs Projection: 26
Strength of Schedule: 0.499
ZiPS has this one as an over, but I Just don’t see it. This pitching staff looks even worse than the Tigers and they are going to get bopped by the Indians and Twins, and the NL Central killers. I just don’t see where the wins come in.
Los Angeles Angels
Win total: 32
Fangraphs Projection: 30
Strength of Schedule: 0.496
The AL West is going to be pretty tough this year with the Astros being the alpha dog plus the Rangers and Athletics in that same area of contention as the Angels. I can see them struggling again and I think this is a good under play.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Win total: 37.5
Fangraphs Projection: 38
Strength of Schedule: 0.484
The best team in the National League last season added Mookie Betts to the mix. Between Mookie, Corey Seager, and Cody Bellinger this is going to be the best team in baseball that can stand to handle an injury or whatever else happens. I think they can win 40+.
Miami Marlins
Win total: 24.5
Fangraphs Projection: 24
Strength of Schedule: 0.522
Don’t care.
Milwaukee Brewers
Win total: 31
Fangraphs Projection: 31
Strength of Schedule: 0.491
Say it with me, the NL Central is going to be a bloodbath.
Minnesota Twins
Win total: 34.5
Fangraphs Projection: 35
Strength of Schedule: 0.478
This number is just too perfect. They are winning 34 or 35. They are making the playoffs. They are going to hit a lot of home runs.
New York Mets
Win total: 32
Fangraphs Projection: 31
Strength of Schedule: 0.508
It would be a very Mets thing to make the playoffs this year and go on a run. I’m just not betting on it.
New York Yankees
Win total: 37.5
Fangraphs Projection: 37
Strength of Schedule: 0.483
A very good number. The Yankees offense will be near the top in all offensive categories and the bullpen is killer. A better World Series bet than over bet though.
Oakland Athletics
Win total: 33.5
Fangraphs Projection: 33
Strength of Schedule: 0.489
A 0.5 difference between ZiPS and Win Total is something I am trying to avoid unless something about the team sticks out. Nothing about this team sticks out.
Philadelphia Phillies
Win total: 31.5
Fangraphs Projection: 30
Strength of Schedule: 0.509
Sorry, Phillies fans. The sixth hardest schedule in baseball and maybe the weakest pitching staff in their own division spells trouble for this team.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Win total: 25.5
Fangraphs Projection: 26
Strength of Schedule: 0.504
The NL Central is going to be a bloodbath.
San Diego Padres
Win total: 31
Fangraphs Projection: 32
Strength of Schedule: 0.498
I’ve seen people listing the Padres as a sleeper Wild Card team. I just don’t see it.
San Francisco Giants
Win total: 25.5
Fangraphs Projection: 25
Strength of Schedule: 0.516
This might be the lowest scoring offense in all of baseball this season and all of their division is at least decent. Fourth hardest schedule in baseball. I think this could be a real bad year for the Giants.
Seattle Mariners
Win total: 25
Fangraphs Projection: 22
Strength of Schedule: 0.517
The Mariners have set their contention window at 2021-2022 so this is working out great for them. I am going under here, but I am worried with the lack of minor leagues this season that we see some quality prospects get the early call-up. I think it’s worth the risk though.
St. Louis Cardinals
Win total: 32.5
Fangraphs Projection: 31
Strength of Schedule: 0.492
I hate the Cardinals.
Tampa Bay Rays
Win total: 34
Fangraphs Projection: 35
Strength of Schedule: 0.488
The Rays have a good schedule and I think this could be a strong season for them. The pitching is projected as one of the best in the American League. Unfortunately, this number is right now.
Texas Rangers
Win total: 29.5
Fangraphs Projection: 27
Strength of Schedule: 0.503
This is a situation where I think the win total is closer than the ZiPS projection.
Toronto Blue Jays
Win total: 28
Fangraphs Projection: 27
Strength of Schedule: 0.508
A sleeper playoff team? They would need a lot to break right. I’m excited for Vlad Jr. though.
Washington Nationals
Win total: 34
Fangraphs Projection: 34
Strength of Schedule: 0.500
Are these guys going to repeat as World Series champions? Seriously?
