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3-2 last night on Patreon.
W Orioles Over 5.5 Runs
W Rays -1.5
W Reds Moneyline
L Jays -1.5
L Cardinals -1.5
Quiet nights from the Jays and Cardinals on offense. I’m wondering if I should’ve accounted for the Coors hangover for the Cardinals there as it’s always a rude awakening to play somewhere else after being in hitter’s paradise for a few days.
Six tips tonight.
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Reminder: All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
ARI – Madison Bumgarner
MIA – Trevor Rogers
The Marlins look good, but the prices are just a bit too expensive for me. I really don’t want to miss out on targeting Madison Bumgarner though as he’s been hit extremely hard early and always struggles with the homerun so we’re going to bust out a bet that I rarely make here, the F5 team over.
A small sample size, but Bumgarner has allowed six of his seven earned runs during the first time through the order this season. Actually, not a small sample size as last season he also had a 6.35 FIP the first time through the order.
Marlins Over 2.5 First 5 Innings (-120)
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
TBR – Drew Rasmussen
TEX – Martin Perez
The Rays are never losing. They have hit extremely well early and there is really no reason to start going against them now. Rasmussen projects as the much better starter here as Berrios has been hit hard in his first two starts with an 11.17 ERA/3.19 FIP.
Rays Moneyline -127
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
LAA – Patrick Sandoval
BOS – Tanner Houck
Nothing really against either of these pitchers, but this is one of the best hitting parks out there and these teams look like they are going to score here. The Angels are especially hitting well of late with a 114 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Angels/Red Sox Over 9 (-112)
Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
ATL – Charlie Morton
KCR – Brady Singer
The System likes Brady Singer, but this is a tough match-up for anyone and his offense is unlikely to do him any favors here. The Royals have just a 63 wRC+ since the beginning of the season and have really struggled against righties. Morton has been solid and the Braves bullpen has been much better early as well.
Braves Moneyline -135
New York Mets at Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:
NYM – Kodai Senga
OAK – James Kaprielian
The Mets are the favorite play of the day. It is just short of a -1.5 as the System has them +2.26 and I like to only bet those +2.5 or higher.
Instead, I’ll take my chances with the Mets team over. James Kaprielian has been hit extremely hard with an 11.17 ERA/8.67 FIP in his two starts with four homeruns allowed. The bullpen behind him hasn’t been much better. This isn’t factored in, but the Athletics also played yesterday in Baltimore so jet lag very well might be a thing.
Mets Over 4.5 (-128)
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Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
COL – Austin Gomber
SEA – Marco Gonzales
A bit of a surprising pick considering who is on the mound, but the under looks like a good play here. Both of these teams have struggled against lefties early, it will be cold, this park is good for pitching, and both bullpens have pitched well this season. Plus, the Coors hangover is likely to be a factor as the Rockies go from high elevation and 80-degree weather to Seattle in April.
Rockies/Mariners Under 8.5 (-112)
