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A 2-1 record last night.
A very easy win for the Cardinals yesterday as they jumped all over Joe Ross. We also got the win with the Giants who shutout the Phillies.
Our lone loss was the over in the Rays/Royals game. There were definitely some opportunities, but the cold definitely had a bigger effect on this game than I thought going in. Always check the weather! I use the weather page at RotoGrinders.
Cubs/Mets is actually a game that the system likes the over, but it’s going to be near freezing at first pitch. There will be plenty of games where the weather will benefit us in Wrigley this summer. No need to force things now.
To follow-up on what I wrote yesterday about the KBH system where I take a pitcher’s strikeout, walk, and homerun rate and compare them against the team they are facing. I had kind of a breakthrough after writing it all out yesterday. I realized it’s not a number for rating that pitcher, but for rating how hard that match-up will be for that pitcher based on his strengths/weaknesses and the team he is facing’s strengths/weakness. Almost like a park factor. So, in the example I used yesterday I said Justus Sheffield went from a 95 to a 111. That was wrong. He’s still a 95 pitcher, but that match-up was 11% harder than an average start for him.
Like I said yesterday, I’m still tweaking. Writing this out and sharing the process definitely helps. Hit me up on twitter if you have any thoughts or ideas when it comes to improving the system.
Best Odds for MLB:
| Type of Bet / Prop: | Where To Bet: |
|---|---|
| R + H + E | BetOnline |
| MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) | Bet365 |
| World Series Futures | SportsBetting.ag |
| 5 Inning Run Lines | BetOnline |
| 1st Inning Moneylines | Bet365 |
| Total Team Runs Over/Under | Bet365 |
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | Adam Wainwright | 97 | 98 | 19 | 98 | 12 | 96 | 12 | 101 | 12 | |
| WSN | Patrick Corbin | 81 | 104 | 12 | 95 | 16 | 101 | 23 | 112 | 23 | 103 |
This is a bet on just how bad that Patrick Corbin has been in his first two starts of the season and a bet on how well the Cardinals have hit lefties in the very small sample size that is this season. If I was going strictly by projections, this would probably be a tip for the Nationals. So this tip depends on how much faith you put in what we’ve seen thus far.
Corbin has a decent projection, but he gave up 6 runs in his first start against the Dodgers and then 10 runs (9 earned) in just two innings his second start against the Diamondbacks. He’s not that bad, nobody is really that bad, but he shouldn’t be the favorite here based on what we’ve seen. The Cardinals have a 135 wRC+ against lefties on the season.
Adam Wainwright is average to very slightly above average. He has a 4.02 ERA/4.56 FIP on the young season. The Nationals has just an 84 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 77 | 108 | 6 | 91 | 19 | 101 | 23 | 102 | 14 | |
| BOS | Eduardo Rodriguez | 84 | 104 | 12 | 128 | 1 | 96 | 11 | 72 | 2 | 105 |
A good pitching match-up here, but these offenses are too good for a total of just eight runs. Ryu has been lucky early with a .260 BABIP and 84.5% left on base percentage. Those numbers won’t stay that high forever. While Rodriguez has a 3.60 ERA/3.59 FIP thus far, beating his projections by about a half a run.
Both of these teams have hit lefties well early and hit more homeruns than they’ve played games. Again, both of these pitchers have been good, but they are not the kind of guys I expect to completely shutdown an offense.
Two good offenses in a great hitting park. Let’s go.
Bet Red Sox/Blue Jays Over 8 Runs
Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Luis Garcia | 105 | 110 | 5 | 115 | 4 | 98 | 15 | 117 | 26 | |
| COL | Jon Gray | 91 | 86 | 30 | 62 | 30 | 110 | 30 | 115 | 25 | 116 |
I like Jon Gray, but the Astros should absolutely win this game and I’m surprised to see that they aren’t a bigger favorite here. This is a bad match-up for anybody, but the Astros match-up well. He doesn’t strike many people out and they hardly strike out. He gives up homeruns, they hit homeruns. You know how this goes.
Luis Garcia is a slightly below average pitcher, but he has a good strikeout rate and the Rockies like to strikeout. Their offense has been abysmal early with just an 86 wRC+.
Neither bullpen gives me much hope, but I trust the Astros to take advantage of it much more than I do the Rockies.
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | Jordan Lyles | 106 | 91 | 28 | 86 | 23 | 101 | 23 | 118 | 27 | |
| LAA | Shohei Ohtani | 81 | 106 | 10 | 115 | 4 | 98 | 14 | 82 | 5 | 101 |
The Angels are a team we’ve been riding with a bit lately and there is no reason to step off that wagon here. They are against a very hittable Jordan Lyles here who has a 4.70 ERA/5.57 FIP on the season and a 2.35 HR/9 rate. He can be hit hard and the Angels are a team that can hit people hard.
Shohei Ohtani pitches for the Angels here and that is the big risk in this bet. He’s only made one start and walks were a serious problem, but he also has elite strikeout numbers. I’m willing to go with him here as the Rangers offense has been far below average and the hitting match-up is just too good to pass up.
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