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Four MLB tips for April 20th, 2022.
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All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
ARI – Merrill Kelly 4.44 ERA/4.11 FIP (2021)
WSN – Erick Fedde 5.47 ERA/4.66 FIP (2021)
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The System seems some big runs being scored here. Merrill Kelly has struggled with homeruns over his career and pitched worse on the road last season. He’s been very good early in this season so this is a bit of a bet on regression. I’m prepared to be wrong, but a huge jump from 7.41 K/9 in 2021 and 12.54 K/9 in 2022 doesn’t seem sustainable.
Erick Fedde is about as average as a pitcher gets. He’s not someone I worry about throwing a shutout and the Diamondbacks have a patient offense.
A bit of a risk as both offenses have under performed early, but they are going to need to get back to where they are supposed to be at some point. This is as good of a match-up as any.
Pick: Arizona/Washington Over 4 Runs First 5 Innings (-120)
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St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
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STL – Miles Mikolas 4.23 ERA/4.40 FIP (2021)
MIA – Sandy Alcantara 3.19 ERA/3.42 FIP (2021)
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
TOR – Jose Berrios 3.52 ERA/3.47 FIP (2021)
BOS – Nick Pivetta 4.53 ERA/4.28 FIP (2021)
These pitchers are both a lot better than they have been this far, but they have both been very bad thus far.
Pivetta has allowed four runs in each of his first two starts and three homeruns overall. Tonight he faces one of the most powerful offenses in all of baseball in a friendly hitter’s park.
Berrios bounced back from his 1/3 inning, four run outing in his first start to allow three runs on two homeruns in five innings against the Yankees.
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Not sure I am trusting either of these starters and I am a fan of both of these offenses. The System likes the game total as well in this one, but sees 6+ runs coming from the first five innings and that’s using their more favorable projections.
Pick: Blue Jays/Red Sox Over 5 Runs First 5 Innings (+100)
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
MIN – Chris Paddack 5.07 ERA/3.78 FIP (2021)
KCR – Daniel Lynch 5.69 ERA/4.82 FIP (2021)
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Not sure what the deal is with this line because it looks like a slam dunk for the Twins to me. They have the better offense, their offense hits lefties hard, and they have the better pitcher on the mound. Paddack had some bad luck last season with his ERA being so much higher than his FIP, but that shouldn’t be a problem in Minnesota with a great defense behind him.
The Royals are projected to be well below average against righties this year and they only have a 80 wRC+ thus far this season.
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Daniel Lynch was hit extremely hard in his last start, allowing six runs on nine hits to the Cardinals. The Twins have a better offense than the Cardinals.
Pick: Twins First 5 Innings Moneyline -125
