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Offense is down to start the year in baseball. I feel like this is something that will change once we get to the warmer weather throughout the league, but as for now I had to lower the system’s run expectations. I had average runs per game around 4.8, but it has only been 4.3 to start the year. A half run might not seem like much until you’re laying that half run. Then it is everything.
OPS is down across the board with the the league averaging just .700 in that stat. Again, this is one that should improve as time goes on, but offense is down year over year again. The league really needs to do something about it. Solo homeruns and strikeouts is all we seem to see these days.
I made those couple of tweaks to the system and it changed some projections a bit. I’m hoping it will lead to more wins which is the point of this whole system anyway. Let’s find out. Four tips today.
Best Odds for MLB:
| Type of Bet / Prop: | Where To Bet: |
|---|---|
| R + H + E | BetOnline |
| MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) | Bovada |
| World Series Futures | SportsBetting.ag |
| 5 Inning Run Lines | BetOnline |
| 1st Inning Moneylines | Bovada |
| Total Team Runs Over/Under | Bovada |
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves Betting Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | Zach Davies | 116 | 106 | 10 | 95 | 15 | 98 | 17 | 105 | 16 | |
| ATL | Charlie Morton | 90 | 107 | 8 | 93 | 19 | 95 | 8 | 91 | 6 | 103 |
The KBH (strikeouts, walks, homeruns) metric I added to the system this year makes this look like a real nightmare match-up for the Cubs and Zach Davies. He’s a low strikeout guy who gives up the homerun while the Braves team likes to hit the homerun and work the count. Just not a good match-up for him whatsoever and I’m surprised to see this line so low.
Charlie Morton has a 3.91 ERA/3.05 FIP thus far this season with a K/9 rate of 10.57. Strikeouts will be a problem for the Cubs today. Morton can get them and they have the fourth highest rate in the league.
Bet Braves First 5 Innings -0.5 (-135)
Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | Sean Manaea | 103 | 107 | 8 | 106 | 7 | 95 | 9 | 108 | 20 | |
| TBR | Rich Hill | 122 | 102 | 15 | 103 | 8 | 90 | 4 | 105 | 16 | 96 |
Rich Hill has looked rough to start the season with a 8.82 ERA/5.48 FIP in four starts. The Athletics offense has been very good against lefties as well. Hill has a high 2.20 HR/9 rate and my system has the Athletics as one of the better homerun hitting teams in the league. This is a great match-up for that offense.
The Rays have also been solid against lefties, but I think Manaea should be a tough match-up for them. Tampa relies on working the count and drawing walks, but he does a good job of keeping his walks down and getting groundballs.
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Trevor Rogers | 97 | 93 | 27 | 89 | 21 | 100 | 21 | 110 | 21 | |
| MIL | Corbin Burnes | 68 | 99 | 17 | 85 | 26 | 95 | 10 | 121 | 28 | 100 |
This one is all about Corbin Burnes. He has been absolutely dominant to start the year with a 0.37 ERA/0.71 FIP and a huge 14.79 K/9 rate. Burnes is just dominating and he draws a great match-up against a weak Marlins offense who have just an 89 wRC+ on the season.
The Brewers offense hasn’t been much better, but they’ve hit lefties better than righties this year and Rogers has been somewhat lucky early.
Bet Brewers First 5 Innings -0.5 (-125)
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
| Starter | FIP- | wRC+ | Rank | L14 | Rank | Bullpen | Rank | L14 | Rank | Park | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | Shohei Ohtani | 100 | 106 | 10 | 114 | 4 | 98 | 14 | 96 | 12 | |
| TEX | Jordan Lyles | 127 | 91 | 28 | 95 | 15 | 101 | 23 | 120 | 25 | 100 |
We did this tip last week and we’re doing it again here for the same reasons.
Lyles is hittable, the Angels offense is good, and we still believe in Shohei Ohtani as a starter.
His walks have been high in every start, but so have his strikeouts. The Rangers offense has been weak this year with a high strikeout rate, below average walk rate. This is the match-up that makes Ohtani look great.
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