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MLB Betting Tips for April 2nd, 2024.
3-0 last night on Patreon!
W Cubs -1.5 (-110)
W Reds/Phillies Over 8 Runs (-110)
W Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-131)
The first of many undefeated nights to come this season.
I think the extra innings rules in baseball are stupid and take away from the game, but when they lead to an extra seven runs being scored – I love them.
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All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
KCR – Alec Marsh
BAL – Cole Irvin
Irvin isn’t my favorite pitcher, but the Royals were very bad against lefties last season and I expect them to be again. Irvin is more bend but not break so even if he gives up some runs, it’s not like we’ll see a repeat of that Sunday Royals game.
The Orioles offense has started red hot and I like the match-up with Marsh. He had a 5.69 ERA/5.70 FIP last season with big walks, big strikeouts, big homers, and a low groundball rate. It doesn’t seem like he knows where it’s going and when they make contact, it hurts.
I expect the Orioles to strike early here.
Orioles -0.5 (-115)
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
ATL – Reynaldo López
CHW – Garrett Crochet
The White Sox are so bad they are even losing their first base coach.
The Sox are yet to win their first game and I doubt that is coming today. It’ll be cold, but winds are blowing out and they are facing one of the most dangerous offenses in the game. Crochet had a decent start to the season, but there is a pretty huge difference between the Tigers offense and the Braves.
Lopez has been a very good reliever over the past couple seasons, but the Braves are seeing if he can be a starter again. I’m not sure how that will work out overall. Today, it will probably work out pretty good as Lopez goes against his former team.
Let’s keep this simple: the Braves have a 147 wRC+ this season and the White Sox have a 55 wRC+.
The System’s top play of the day.
Braves -1.5 (-135)
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
COL – Kyle Freeland
CHC – Javier Assad
The Cubs should be very tough against lefties this year and Freeland is a very hittbale lefty.
Freeland plays his home games at the toughest hitter’s park in the league, but was somehow worse on the road last season with a 5.13 ERA/5.67 FIP on the road.
Assad is nothing to get excited about, but the Rockies offense was one of the worst against righties last season and it looks like they are heading that way again. I don’t expect him to go long here so we might see some bullpen early.
It took the Cubs offense a while to get going last time, but I expect them to strike early today. I’m going with the F5 play because it could be a lot of bullpen from both ends.
Cubs -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
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